Match Analysis: TCU Horned Frogs vs St. Francis (PA) Red Flash – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-06
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth
Game Overview
The TCU Horned Frogs (0-1), coming off a close home loss to New Orleans, host the St. Francis (PA) Red Flash (0-1), who were blown out by Oklahoma in their opener. Both teams are looking for their first win of the season, with TCU favored by a large margin and sportsbooks assigning them a near-certain win probability[1][3][4].
Key Factors to Consider
- TCU lost 74-78 at home, showing some vulnerability despite being a Power 5 program. St. Francis (PA) was routed 66-102 by Oklahoma, struggling both offensively (40.9% FG, 29.4% 3PT) and defensively (55.7% FG allowed, 36.7% 3PT allowed)[1][3]. TCUβs loss was much more competitive against a weaker opponent, suggesting a higher baseline quality.
- No recent head-to-head history found. This is a non-conference matchup between programs from different tiers.
- No injury reports found in available sources.
- Game is played at TCUβs home venue, giving the Horned Frogs a clear home-court advantage. Both teams are early in the season and may still be adjusting lineups and rotations.
- TCU aims to bounce back from an unexpected home loss and avoid further early-season setbacks. St. Francis (PA) looks to avoid an 0-2 start, but faces a significant talent and depth disadvantage[1].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Francis (PA): +3000, TCU: -10000 | TCU to win | β β β β β 99% |
| Spread | St. Francis (PA): +25.5 (-110), TCU: -25.5 (-110) | TCU -25.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over 150.5 (-110), Under 150.5 (-110) | Under 150.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | TCU Horned Frogs 2969% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 150.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: TCU Horned Frogs at 2969% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 99% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
TCU is expected to win comfortably, covering the large spread given the talent gap and St. Francis (PA)βs defensive struggles. The total is likely to stay under the bookmakers' line, as both teams have shown limited offensive efficiency in early games and the game script favors TCU controlling tempo[3].
Predicted Score: TCU 82, St. Francis (PA) 55