Match Analysis: Stetson Hatters vs Wright St Raiders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 25, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Stetson University, DeLand, Florida (Home)
Game Overview
The Stetson Hatters (3-3) host the Wright State Raiders (3-3) in a non-conference NCAA Men's Basketball matchup. Both teams enter with identical records but contrasting home/away performances. Stetson remains undefeated at home (3-0), while Wright State has struggled on the road (0-1). Wright State arrives as 8.5-point road favorites despite their travel woes, suggesting oddsmakers favor their overall offensive and defensive capabilities. This matchup features a critical clash between Stetson's dominant home court advantage and Wright State's superior statistical efficiency.
Key Factors to Consider
- Wright State demonstrates superior offensive and defensive metrics with a +18 point differential compared to Stetson's -5. The Raiders shoot 49.9% from the field (48th nationally) versus Stetson's 43.4% (264th), and maintain better field goal defense at 40.3% allowed versus Stetson's 46.3%. However, Stetson has won their last three home games consecutively. Wright State's recent form includes a dominant 100-47 home victory over Ohio Wesleyan, while Stetson secured a 99-80 home win against VMI. Turnover management favors Wright State (11.7 per game, 164th) over Stetson (13.5 per game, 271st).
- Wright State has lost each of its last eight road games following a home win, creating a concerning pattern for the Raiders. Conversely, Stetson has won each of its last six games played at home. Historical non-conference trends heavily favor Wright State, who have won each of their last four games against the ASUN Conference, while Stetson has lost 16 of their last 18 non-conference games. Additionally, Wright State has lost the first half in each of its last five road night games against non-conference opponents, suggesting slow starts on the road.
- No significant injuries reported for either team. Both squads appear at full strength for this matchup.
- The game is played on a Tuesday night at Stetson's home venue, where the Hatters maintain a perfect 3-0 record this season. Home court advantage is substantial in college basketball, particularly for mid-major programs. Wright State's 0-1 road record and historical struggles away from home (0-1 ATS away, having lost their only away game) represent significant concerns. The neutral venue effect heavily favors Stetson despite Wright State's superior overall metrics.
- Stetson seeks to extend their home winning streak to four consecutive games and maintain their perfect home record. Wright State aims to break their problematic road losing streak and prove their statistical superiority translates to consistent results. Both teams sit at 3-3, making this a critical early-season opportunity to climb conference standings and build momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Stetson +295 / Wright State -420 | Wright State Win | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | Stetson +8.5 (-114) / Wright State -8.5 (-112) | Stetson +8.5 Cover | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 150.5 (-117) / Under 150.5 (-109) | Under 150.5 | β β β ββ 61% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Wright St Raiders 145% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 150.5 -0% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Wright St Raiders at 145% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 49.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
This matchup presents a classic analytics versus home court advantage scenario. While Wright State's superior offensive efficiency (49.9% FG) and defensive metrics (+18 differential) suggest they should win decisively, Stetson's undefeated home record (3-0) and Wright State's historically poor road performance (0-1, eight consecutive road losses after home wins) create compelling contrarian value. The spread of 8.5 points appears inflated for a road team with documented travel issues. Wright State's inability to win on the road, combined with their concerning 0-4 Over/Under record and tendency to lose first halves in road non-conference games, suggests the oddsmakers may be overweighting raw statistical advantages. Stetson's home court advantage, combined with Wright State's road struggles, creates a scenario where covering the spread provides stronger value than the moneyline.
Predicted Score: Wright State 72, Stetson 68