Match Analysis: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs Arkansas St Red Wolves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: William R. Johnson Coliseum, Nacogdoches, Texas
Game Overview
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks host Arkansas State Red Wolves in a non-conference NCAAB matchup. Both teams are coming off strong performances in their season openers, with SFA posting a dominant 103-76 win over Millsaps and Arkansas State narrowly defeating Ohio 89-85. The game is expected to be competitive, with Arkansas State favored by a slim margin on the spread.
Key Factors to Consider
- Stephen F. Austin showed offensive firepower in their opener, scoring 103 points and averaging 27 points per quarter. Arkansas State's win was closer, scoring 89 points but allowing 85, indicating a more balanced but less explosive offense. Both teams have shown solid starts, but SFA's offensive output stands out.
- The two teams have met once, in 2019, with Arkansas State winning 59-49. This is a limited sample, but Arkansas State holds the edge in their only previous meeting. No recent trends or patterns can be established from just one game.
- No significant injuries have been reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads appear to be at full strength for this matchup.
- Stephen F. Austin will have the home-court advantage at the William R. Johnson Coliseum, which could provide a boost for the Lumberjacks. The venue is known for its strong support, especially in non-conference games.
- Both teams are looking to build momentum early in the season. Stephen F. Austin will be motivated to avenge their previous loss to Arkansas State and prove their strength at home. Arkansas State will aim to continue their winning streak and establish themselves as a competitive team on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Stephen F. Austin: +110, Arkansas State: -130 | Stephen F. Austin | β β β ββ 55% |
| Spread | Arkansas State: -1.5 -115, Stephen F. Austin: 1.5 -105 | Stephen F. Austin +1.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 152.5 -115, Under: 152.5 -105 | Over 152.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 152.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 152.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Stephen F. Austin is expected to leverage their home-court advantage and strong offensive performance to edge out Arkansas State in a close game. The Lumberjacks' ability to score in bunches could be the deciding factor, but Arkansas State's defense and experience may keep the game tight.
Predicted Score: Stephen F. Austin 78, Arkansas State 76