Match Analysis: St. John's Red Storm vs William & Mary Tribe – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Carnesecca Arena
Game Overview
The St. John's Red Storm, ranked 13th nationally, are heavy favorites against the William & Mary Tribe, with a significant talent, efficiency, and home court advantage gap. Both teams have started the season with mixed results, but St. John's shows superior offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. The matchup is expected to be a high-tempo, high-scoring game given both teams' fast pace.
Key Factors to Consider
- St. John's ranks 22nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 27th in defense, while William & Mary ranks 142nd offensively and 286th defensively. St. John's has struggled only marginally, currently 1-1, but shows dominance especially at home. William & Mary is 2-1 but has much weaker overall metrics.
- St. John's has won all three games as a heavy moneyline favorite last season and maintains a dominant 38-game streak in night non-conference home games. William & Mary has lost their last five road games following a road loss, indicating struggles away from home.
- No major injuries reported for either team affecting starters or rotation players that could influence the outcome materially.
- The game will be hosted at Carnesecca Arena with St. John's playing at home, which historically boosts their performance. Both teams show a preference for fast-paced gameplay, increasing scoring potential. Media coverage and team motivation following a previous tough loss for St. Johnβs suggest a focused effort.
- St. John's is coming off a tough loss and has had a full week to prepare under coach Rick Pitino, increasing motivation to dominate. William & Mary, as a significant underdog, has motivation limited by recent away losses and overall lower competitiveness.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -20000, away: +3500 | St. John's Red Storm | β β β β β 94% |
| Spread | home: -112, away: -108 | St. John's Red Storm -28.5 | β β β β β 88% |
| Over/under | over: -110, under: -110 | Over 177.5 | β β β β β 78% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. John's Red Storm -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 177.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 177.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. John's Red Storm to win on the moneyline, cover the -28.5 spread, and the game to go over 177.5 points.
Predicted Score: St. John's Red Storm 108 – William & Mary Tribe 75