Match Analysis: St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs Youngstown St Penguins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Reilly Center, St. Bonaventure
Game Overview
This NCAA basketball matchup features the undefeated St. Bonaventure Bonnies (3-0) hosting the Youngstown State Penguins (2-1). St. Bonaventure has demonstrated dominance at home and is favored heavily by bookmakers, reflecting their superior form and talent.
Key Factors to Consider
- St. Bonaventure is 3-0 overall and undefeated at home this season, with strong defense and efficient offense. Youngstown State holds a 2-1 record and has shown inconsistency, including a 5-5 ATS record over the last 10 games.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited, but simulations and expert models favor St. Bonaventure decisively, with a past simulated score of 80-67 in favor of the Bonnies.
- No significant injuries reported on either team that could alter the outcome materially for this matchup.
- St. Bonaventure has full home-court advantage at the Reilly Center, with strong public backing reflected in 100% bets on them; crowd and venue factors strongly favor the home team.
- Both teams are early in the season, but St. Bonaventure's pursuit of a perfect record and conference reputation provides higher motivation. Youngstown State aims to prove their competitiveness but faces a tough environment.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Bonaventure: -500, Youngstown St: +380 | St. Bonaventure | β β β β β 82% |
| Spread | St. Bonaventure -9.5: -112, Youngstown St +9.5: -108 | St. Bonaventure -9.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over 143.5: -110, Under 143.5: -110 | Under 143.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Bonaventure Bonnies -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 143.5 20% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 143.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Bonaventure to win outright with a convincing margin and a moderately high scoring game under the projected total.
Predicted Score: St. Bonaventure 79 – Youngstown State 68