Match Analysis: St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs Siena Saints – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Reilly Center, St. Bonaventure, NY
Game Overview
St. Bonaventure Bonnies host Siena Saints in an early-season matchup between two undefeated teams. St. Bonaventure is favored strongly at home with a deeper roster and superior offensive efficiency, while Siena relies on solid defense and has shown less offensive firepower.
Key Factors to Consider
- St. Bonaventure averages 79 points per game on 51.2% effective FG compared to Siena's 72 PPG on 46%. The Bonnies' stronger offense and rebounding advantage (49.3% offensive rebounds vs 42.6%) give them a consistent edge.
- Recent historical data shows St. Bonaventure dominance especially at home, winning eight consecutive Wednesday games against Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference opponents where Siena participates.
- Siena is missing Reid Ducharme (shoulder), a key forward, while St. Bonaventure's depth offsets limited injuries, with Amar'e Marshall playing limited minutes and Xander Wedlow listed doubtful but non-critical.
- Home court advantage at Reilly Center strongly favors St. Bonaventure; Siena has lost last 12 Wednesday night non-conference road games, increasing the psychological and environmental disadvantage.
- Both teams are undefeated, but St. Bonaventure comes off a dominant 89-70 win in their last outing and is motivated to maintain momentum and home dominance. Siena seeks to establish an upset but faces a tougher challenge on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Bonaventure -410, Siena +320 | St. Bonaventure | β β β β β 82% |
| Spread | St. Bonaventure -8.5 -118, Siena +8.5 -102 | St. Bonaventure -8.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over 140.5 -115, Under 140.5 -105 | Under 140.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Bonaventure Bonnies -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 140.5 37% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 140.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Bonaventure Bonnies to win outright, cover the -8.5 spread, and the game to go under 140.5 total points.
Predicted Score: St. Bonaventure 83 – 65 Siena