Match Analysis: St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs Robert Morris Colonials – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-20
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Reilly Center, Saint Bonaventure, NY
Game Overview
The St. Bonaventure Bonnies, currently undefeated at 4-0, host the Robert Morris Colonials (3-1) in a non-conference matchup. The Bonnies have shown strong early form, particularly at home, while Robert Morris has demonstrated resilience on the road but faces a significant challenge against a physically dominant Bonnies team. The game is set for a prime-time slot, with ESPN+ coverage, and both teams are coming off solid performances.
Key Factors to Consider
- St. Bonaventure has started 4-0, averaging 79.3 points per game and allowing just 69.8, with a strong rebounding and defensive presence. Robert Morris is 3-1, averaging 81.0 points per game but allowing 71.0, showing offensive capability but some defensive vulnerabilities. The Bonnies have won 10 of their last 11 non-conference games, while Robert Morris has lost the first half in four of its last five road games against Atlantic 10 opponents.
- No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup, but St. Bonaventure's dominance in non-conference play and Robert Morris's struggles in similar situations suggest a clear edge for the Bonnies.
- Robert Morris is dealing with injuries to key players: Ikpotokin (undisclosed, out) and Egbuniwe (lower body, out). These absences could impact their defensive and rebounding capabilities.
- The game is being played at the Reilly Center, where St. Bonaventure has a strong home record. The Bonnies' physical style and veteran leadership are expected to be major factors. Robert Morris has won 13 of its last 14 night games, but this is a significant step up in competition.
- St. Bonaventure is looking to maintain its undefeated record and build momentum for conference play. Robert Morris is seeking a signature win to boost its profile and confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Robert Morris Colonials: 470, St. Bonaventure Bonnies: -670 | St. Bonaventure Bonnies | Not available |
| Spread | Robert Morris Colonials: 10.5 -110, St. Bonaventure Bonnies: -10.5 -110 | St. Bonaventure Bonnies -10.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | Over: 146.5 -112, Under: 146.5 -108 | Under 146.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Bonaventure Bonnies -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 146.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 146.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Bonaventure is favored to win this game, with a projected final score of 73-66. The Bonnies' strong start, home advantage, and physical play should be enough to overcome Robert Morris's offensive capabilities. The spread of +10.5 for Robert Morris is seen as generous, but the Bonnies are expected to cover. The total points are likely to stay under 146.5, given the Bonnies' defensive strength and the projected pace of the game.
Predicted Score: St. Bonaventure 73, Robert Morris 66