Match Analysis: SMU Mustangs vs Murray St Racers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-12
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Moody Coliseum, Dallas, TX
Game Overview
The SMU Mustangs host the Murray State Racers in a non-conference matchup at Moody Coliseum. Both teams enter the game undefeated at 2-0. SMU is favored by 11.5 points, with the over/under set at 163.5 points. The game is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET (01:00 UTC).
Key Factors to Consider
- Murray State has shown offensive dominance, averaging 96.5 points per game and shooting 44.2% from the field. Their defense has been solid, allowing just 68.5 points per game. SMU is also 2-0, with a strong home record and a reputation for solid defense. Both teams have played two games, but SMU's recent wins have been closer, while Murray State's last win was a 48-point blowout. Murray State's offense is led by Javon Jackson (16 PPG), Fred King, and Roman Domon (13 PPG each), with Mason Miller leading in rebounds (7 RPG). SMU's team stats are less detailed, but they are favored by the market, indicating strong defensive metrics and home-court advantage.
- No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup. Both teams are in different conferences and have not faced each other in recent seasons.
- CJaden Toombs (SMU) is listed with a wrist injury, but his status is unclear. No other major injuries are reported for either team.
- The game is being played at Moody Coliseum, giving SMU a home-court advantage. The venue is known for a strong home crowd, which could impact the game. The over/under is set at 163.5, suggesting a high-scoring game is expected. Both teams have played two games, so fatigue is not a major factor. The public betting percentage heavily favors SMU, with 100% of bets on the Mustangs.
- Both teams are undefeated and looking to maintain their records. SMU is motivated to prove themselves at home, while Murray State is motivated to continue their strong start on the road. The game is a non-conference matchup, so there is no direct impact on conference standings, but both teams are looking to build momentum for the season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Murray St Racers: 525, SMU Mustangs: -750 | SMU Mustangs | Not available |
| Spread | Murray St Racers: 11.5 -112, SMU Mustangs: -11.5 -108 | SMU Mustangs -11.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | Over: 163.5 -110, Under: 163.5 -110 | Over 163.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | SMU Mustangs -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 163.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 163.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
SMU is favored by 11.5 points and has a strong home record. Murray State has shown offensive dominance but faces a tough defensive team in SMU. The over/under is set at 163.5, suggesting a high-scoring game. Given the home-court advantage and the market's strong favoritism for SMU, the Mustangs are likely to cover the spread. The over is also likely, as both teams have shown the ability to score.
Predicted Score: SMU 85, Murray State 78