Match Analysis: SMU Mustangs vs Arkansas St Red Wolves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Moody Coliseum, Dallas, TX
Game Overview
The SMU Mustangs, undefeated at 5-0 and averaging around 98 points per game over the last three games, host the Arkansas State Red Wolves, who carry a 3-2 record. SMU has demonstrated dominant offensive performances recently, highlighted by a 106-60 win on Nov 18. Arkansas State has shown resilience with wins over Missouri State and Christian Brothers but lost to Saint Mary's on Nov 19. The game features a strong home advantage for SMU and a significant favorite status.
Key Factors to Consider
- SMU is undefeated with a potent offense averaging nearly 98 points in recent games, indicating strong scoring capabilities. Arkansas State has had mixed results, with two recent wins and two losses, including a 72-85 loss to Saint Mary's, a stronger opponent. SMU's offense and defensive consistency are superior overall compared to Arkansas State's more variable performance.
- No explicit recent head-to-head data between SMU Mustangs and Arkansas State Red Wolves in the 2025-26 season was found, suggesting either few matchups or lack of recent direct confrontations.
- No reported injuries or absences for either team were found in the available data, implying both teams are likely at full strength.
- The game is at SMU's home venue Moody Coliseum, which provides a significant home-court advantage. SMU has a strong home record (5-0). Travel and environmental factors likely favor SMU as Arkansas State must travel from Jonesboro to Dallas.
- SMU is motivated to maintain an undefeated record and strong season start, especially playing at home. Arkansas State looks to gain confidence against a tough opponent on the road early in the season to build momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas St Red Wolves: 1100, SMU Mustangs: -2100 | SMU Mustangs | β β β β β 92% |
| Spread | Arkansas St Red Wolves: -112, SMU Mustangs: -108 | SMU Mustangs to cover -17.5 points | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over: -115, Under: -105 | Over 172.5 points | β β β β β 78% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | SMU Mustangs -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 172.5 31% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 172.5 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
SMU Mustangs are predicted to win with a strong margin, given their undefeated streak, home advantage, and superior offensive and defensive performances compared to Arkansas State.
Predicted Score: SMU Mustangs 95 – 75 Arkansas State Red Wolves