Match Analysis: SMU Mustangs vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-18
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Moody Coliseum, Dallas, TX
Game Overview
The SMU Mustangs (4-0), undefeated and playing at home, face a struggling Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions team (0-5) that is yet to win this season. SMU boasts strong offensive and defensive stats, averaging 88.5 points per game while allowing only 77.5. In contrast, Arkansas-Pine Bluff averages 68 points and concedes 94 points per game, showing defensive vulnerability. The significant gap in team quality and form suggests a dominating SMU performance.
Key Factors to Consider
- SMU is showing strong performance with consistent wins, higher scoring (88.5 PPG), better defense (77.5 PPG allowed), and superior assist and rebound numbers compared to Arkansas-Pine Bluff, which is winless and averaging just 68 PPG with weak defense (94 PPG allowed).
- Historical meetings between the teams are scarce or limited, but given SMU's membership in a stronger conference and superior recent form, they are heavily favored in any prior or future matchups.
- No current injury reports available for either team, indicating both squads likely field their standard lineups.
- The game at Moody Coliseum gives SMU a strong home-court advantage; Arkansas-Pine Bluff has a tough travel schedule and is coming off recent heavy losses, potentially impacting morale and physical condition.
- SMU is motivated to maintain its undefeated season and continue dominating weaker opponents. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, on the other hand, is desperate for a first win but faces an imposing challenge against a high-quality home team.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions: 3300, SMU Mustangs: -10000 | SMU Mustangs to win | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions: 36.5 -110, SMU Mustangs: -36.5 -110 | SMU Mustangs to cover the -36.5 spread | β β β β β 90% |
| Over/under | Over: 169.5 -105, Under: 169.5 -115 | Over 169.5 points | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | SMU Mustangs -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 169.5 37% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 169.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
SMU Mustangs are heavily predicted to win convincingly, likely by a margin exceeding 35 points due to the large discrepancy in team quality, record, and home-court advantage. The game is expected to be a one-sided affair with SMU controlling both offense and defense.
Predicted Score: SMU Mustangs 105 – 66 Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions