Match Analysis: Siena Saints vs Albany Great Danes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: MVP Arena, Albany, NY
Game Overview
The Siena Saints host the Albany Great Danes in this NCAA basketball matchup. Siena is slightly ahead with a 2-2 record and is favored heavily at home against Albany, who holds a 2-3 record overall. Both teams have shown defensive strengths this season, often keeping scores low and games trending under the total points line.
Key Factors to Consider
- Siena Saints average 69.8 points per game offensively while allowing 64.8 defensively, ranking them at 169th nationally. Albany Great Danes average 58.7 points per game but allow 81 points defensively, ranking 310th. Siena has shown better consistency and a strong home record, while Albany struggles on the road with a 0-3 record away from home.
- Historically, Siena has a strong advantage at home with the home team winning each of Albanyβs last eight games and Siena winning the first half in all of Albanyβs last eight games. Albany has lost each of its last six road night games against non-conference opponents, indicating a clear home dominance trend favoring Siena.
- Key injury considerations are Mulvey (head) and Ducharme (shoulder) for Siena, with no significant injuries reported for Albany. Injuries could impact Sienaβs rotation and game tempo.
- The game takes place at MVP Arena in Albany, giving Siena home-court advantage despite the location being Albanyβs city. Weather or travel logistics do not appear to be significant factors. Public betting is skewed heavily towards Siena, indicating strong confidence from the market.
- Siena is motivated to maintain home dominance and improve their record, while Albany looks to break their road losing streak. Sienaβs 3-1 ATS record shows confidence against the spread, unlike Albanyβs poor 0-3 ATS and away record, increasing motivation disparity.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -600, away: 425 | Siena Saints moneyline win | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | home: -10.5 -110, away: +10.5 -110 | Siena Saints to cover -10.5 spread | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | over: 136.5 -115, under: 136.5 -105 | Under 136.5 points total | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Siena Saints -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 136.5 37% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 136.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Siena Saints are projected to win with a strong defensive performance and by covering the -10.5 spread. The under 137 points total is favored due to both teams' defensive tendencies and past under performances.
Predicted Score: Siena Saints 74 – Albany Great Danes 60