Match Analysis: Seattle Redhawks vs Cal Poly Mustangs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: Redhawk Center, Seattle
Game Overview
Seattle Redhawks (1-0) host Cal Poly Mustangs (1-1) in an early season NCAAB matchup. Seattle enters as clear favorites, coming off a home win, while Cal Poly is on a winning streak after a blowout victory over a lower-division opponent.
Key Factors to Consider
- Seattle has started the season 1-0, averaging 84 points per game with efficient shooting (45.8% FG, 42.1% 3PT) and strong defensive numbers (allowing 73 PPG, 37.5% opponent FG, 38.1% 3PT)[3]. Cal Poly is 1-1, averaging 82.5 points, but with defensive struggles (86.5 PPG allowed, 40.9% opponent FG, 33.8% 3PT)[3]. Cal Poly's offensive stats are boosted by a recent blowout against a lesser opponent, which skews their season averages[2].
- Cal Poly won the most recent head-to-head meeting 75-71, but this was at home, and both teams have undergone roster changes since then[2]. Seattle's improved offense and home-court advantage are significant factors here.
- No key injuries reported for either team as of now, but always verify closer to tip-off for inactives.
- Home-court advantage favors Seattle. Both teams have played minimal games this season, so sample sizes are small for statistical reliability.
- Seattle is motivated to maintain their perfect start and avenge last season's loss to Cal Poly. Cal Poly looks to build momentum but faces a tougher road environment.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Seattle -410, Cal Poly +320 | Seattle wins | β β β β β 81% |
| Spread | Seattle -8.5 -112, Cal Poly +8.5 -108 | Seattle covers the spread (-8.5) | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 158.5 -112, Under 158.5 -108 | Over 158.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Seattle Redhawks 240% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 158.5 23% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Seattle Redhawks at 240% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 75.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Seattle is the stronger team on both ends of the floor and should win decisively, but Cal Poly's defensive weaknesses make the Over the most attractive play. The spread is close, but Seattle's offensive firepower and home edge make them a solid favorite.
Predicted Score: Seattle Redhawks 86, Cal Poly Mustangs 76