Match Analysis: SE Missouri St Redhawks vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: SE Missouri St Redhawks Home Court (Southeast Missouri State)
Game Overview
This NCAAB game features the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks hosting the St. Thomas (MN) Tommies. SE Missouri enters with a 1-2 record, currently on a three-game losing streak straight up but with moderate ATS success. St. Thomas is slightly favored with a 2-2 record and recent strong performance when favored. The game total is projected near 152.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- SE Missouri State shows inconsistency, with recent losses and an ATS record around 50%. They have had a balanced over/under performance (5 overs, 5 unders last 10 games), trending toward overs in last two games. St. Thomas (MN) holds a better record and has a notable 24-4 SU when favored historically, indicating stronger reliability in favored matchups.
- Current season and recent head-to-head data is limited. No significant recent meetings highlighted. Market odds indicate preference for St. Thomas as the stronger team in this matchup.
- No confirmed key injuries reported for either team in the available data, suggesting both teams likely to field strongest lineups.
- Home court advantage favors SE Missouri State, but public betting heavily supports St. Thomas (MN), with nearly 100% public bets on SE Missouri spread bets indicating market confidence in St. Thomas performance.
- St. Thomas (MN) seeks to improve its winning record and capitalize on underdog expectations early season, while SE Missouri aims to halt its losing streak in front of home fans, adding emotional incentives for both sides.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | SE Missouri St Redhawks: 140, St. Thomas (MN) Tommies: -166 | St. Thomas (MN) Tommies to win | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | SE Missouri St Redhawks: 2.5 -102, St. Thomas (MN) Tommies: -2.5 -118 | St. Thomas (MN) Tommies to cover -2.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 152.5 -115, Under: 152.5 -105 | Over 152.5 points | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Thomas (MN) Tommies -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 152.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 152.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Thomas (MN) Tommies are favored to win by a small margin, benefiting from superior recent form and betting market consensus. The game is expected to be close, with St. Thomas likely covering the spread of -2.5 points. The total score prediction leans towards the Over 152.5 points given recent scoring trends of both teams.
Predicted Score: St. Thomas (MN) Tommies 77 – SE Missouri State Redhawks 73