Match Analysis: San Francisco Dons vs Portland St Vikings – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: War Memorial at the Sobrato Center, San Francisco
Game Overview
The San Francisco Dons host the Portland State Vikings in an NCAA basketball matchup with both teams holding 1-1 records. San Francisco enters with strong home form and defensive capabilities, while Portland State boasts an explosive offense but has struggled defensively on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Francisco is averaging 84.0 points scored and allowing 64.5 points per game, shooting 47.6% from the field, demonstrating solid efficiency. Portland State has the ability to score high but has defensive vulnerabilities, notably on the road. Recent results include Portland State's big 122-74 home win over Northwest Indian College and San Francisco's close 76-70 loss at Memphis.
- Recent historical data indicates San Franciscoβs dominance at home against non-AP ranked opponents, with 20 consecutive night game wins at War Memorial. Portland State has lost its last four road games against non-AP-ranked teams and often trails in first halves on the road.
- No significant injuries have been reported for either team ahead of this game.
- The Dons benefit from the home court advantage at a strong venue which has historically favored them in night games. Portland Stateβs recent strong home performance contrasts with their poor road record, making travel a potential factor.
- San Francisco appears motivated to rebound after a narrow road loss and maintain their strong home winning streak. Portland State aims to avoid a heavy defeat and build on recent offensive success against a tougher opponent on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Portland St Vikings: +500, San Francisco Dons: -700 | San Francisco Dons to win | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Portland St Vikings: +11.5 -115, San Francisco Dons: -11.5 -105 | San Francisco Dons -11.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over: 152.5 -112, Under: 152.5 -108 | Under 152.5 points | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Francisco Dons -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 152.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 152.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Francisco Dons are favored to win by a margin exceeding the 11.5-point spread, leveraging home advantage and defensive strength to control the tempo and limit Portland Stateβs scoring opportunities.
Predicted Score: San Francisco Dons 78 – Portland State Vikings 65