Match Analysis: San Diego St Aztecs vs Troy Trojans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-19
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
Game Overview
San Diego State Aztecs (2-0) host Troy Trojans (3-2) in a college basketball matchup. The Aztecs, undefeated at home, face Troy who are underdogs but coming off a mixed start. San Diego State displays stronger team metrics and home court advantage, while Troy relies heavily on key players like Cooper Campbell. The game is expected to be controlled by the Aztecs with a significant spread favoring them.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Diego State is undefeated so far this season with a strong home record (2-0) and efficient scoring (10.5 PPG by key player Harrington). Troy has a 3-2 record but struggles with consistency and is heavily reliant on Campbell's scoring (15.8 PPG). San Diego State's defense and overall depth appear superior.
- Recent direct matchups favor San Diego State with Troy often unable to cover large spreads. No available detailed head-to-head results for this specific season but historical trend supports Aztecs dominance.
- San Diego State has minor injuries listed (e.g., Gwath with a knee issue), unlikely to severely impact performance. Troy's injury report is minimal.
- Home court advantage for San Diego State at Viejas Arena often boosts their performance. Crowd support and travel fatigue likely affect Troy negatively.
- San Diego State aims to maintain a perfect home record and establish dominance early in the season, while Troy looks to prove competitiveness against a top-ranked program despite odds.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego St Aztecs: -2300, Troy Trojans: 1060 | San Diego St Aztecs win | β β β β β 92% |
| Spread | San Diego St Aztecs: -15.5 -115, Troy Trojans: +15.5 -105 | San Diego St Aztecs -15.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over: 138.5 -110, Under: 138.5 -110 | Under 138.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego St Aztecs -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 138.5 34% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 138.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego State wins comfortably, covering the spread. The Aztecs' defensive strength and home court edge should limit Troy's offensive production.
Predicted Score: San Diego State Aztecs 78, Troy Trojans 60