Match Analysis: San Diego St Aztecs vs Idaho State Bengals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Viejas Arena, San Diego State
Game Overview
The San Diego State Aztecs host the Idaho State Bengals in a non-conference NCAAB matchup. San Diego State is a dominant favorite with overwhelming home advantage and stronger defensive metrics, while Idaho State comes in with a solid recent road win but is outmatched overall.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Diego State is 1-0 with a strong defensive showing, allowing only 45 points in their last game and holding opponents to 38.3% shooting. Idaho State is 2-0 with decent offensive numbers but weaker defense (allowing 70 points on average). San Diego State excels at home, winning 20 of last 21 non-conference games at Viejas Arena, while Idaho State struggles historically on the road.
- No recent direct H2H data is provided, but San Diego State's home dominance against non-conference opponents and Idaho State's overall poor record against similar teams strongly favors the Aztecs.
- No key injury reports affecting either team in available data.
- Motivation for San Diego State is high to maintain home dominance and strong defensive reputation. Idaho State is motivated to prove competitiveness but faces a heavy underdog position.
- San Diego State seeks to continue their strong home start and defensive dominance. Idaho State aims to avoid a blowout and hold respect against a top-tier opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego St Aztecs: -10000, Idaho State Bengals: +2500 | San Diego St Aztecs | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | San Diego St -22.5 (-105), Idaho State +22.5 (-115) | San Diego St Aztecs -22.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over 139.5 (-110), Under 139.5 (-114) | Under 139.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego St Aztecs -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 139.5 22% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 139.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego State to win comfortably, covering the spread and the game total to stay under 139.5 points due to their defensive strength and Idaho State's relative offensive limitations.
Predicted Score: San Diego State 83 – Idaho State 58