Match Analysis: San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
Game Overview
The San Antonio Spurs host the Sacramento Kings in an NBA matchup where the Spurs enter with a strong 8-4 record, featuring MVP-candidate Victor Wembanyama and solid defense. The Kings struggle with a 3-10 record, currently on a 5-game losing streak and defensive issues, particularly allowing high opponent scoring.
Key Factors to Consider
- Spurs are 8-4, ranking 5th in points allowed per game and showing good overall efficiency; Kings are 3-10, allowing 122+ points in recent losses, struggling defensively and on a losing skid.
- Recent simulations suggest a close game but favor the Kings slightly (128-125) in some AI models; however, Spursβ overall form and home advantage balance this out.
- Victor Wembanyama is dealing with a calf issue but expected to play; Sacramentoβs key players including Domantas Sabonis are questionable, weakening their frontcourt.
- Home crowd support and better overall health favor the Spurs; Kings have pressure from roster uncertainty and poor form.
- Spurs motivated to solidify playoff positioning with a quality start to the season; Kings seek to end a losing streak but defensive woes limit confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Antonio Spurs -310, Sacramento Kings +250 | San Antonio Spurs | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | San Antonio Spurs -8.5 (-108), Sacramento Kings +8.5 (-112) | San Antonio Spurs -8.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 238.5 (-105), Under 238.5 (-115) | Over 238.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Antonio Spurs -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 238.5 33% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 238.5 at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Antonio Spurs to win straight up, cover the 8.5 spread, with the game going over 238.5 points
Predicted Score: San Antonio Spurs 124 – Sacramento Kings 114