Match Analysis: San Antonio Spurs vs Atlanta Hawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 21, 2025
- Time: 1:10 AM UTC
- Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio
Game Overview
The San Antonio Spurs host the Atlanta Hawks in a matchup between two teams trending in opposite directions. The Spurs have won 6 of their last 10 games and currently sit 5th in the Western Conference with a 10-4 record, while the Hawks have won 7 of their last 10 games and are performing well offensively. This represents a competitive conference matchup with significant betting interest indicated by the tight moneyline odds.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Antonio Spurs are averaging 117.1 points per game with 48.6% field goal shooting and 82.9% free throw shooting. The Hawks are averaging 118.9 points per game with 49.9% field goal shooting and 81.2% free throw shooting, showing slightly superior offensive efficiency. The Spurs allow 114.0 points per contest while the Hawks allow 111.4 points, indicating the Hawks have the stronger defense. Both teams are shooting the three-ball effectively (Spurs 38%, Hawks 36%).
- In all-time regular season matchups, the Spurs lead 60-45 over the Hawks across 105 total games. The Spurs have won their last two meetings, including a 133-126 overtime victory at Frost Bank Center on December 19, 2024, and a 126-125 victory on February 5, 2025. Historically, the Spurs maintain a 57.1% win rate against Atlanta. At home, this advantage typically strengthens further for San Antonio.
- No specific injury information is provided in available data. Current roster status should be verified through official NBA sources prior to wagering.
- The Spurs are playing at home at Frost Bank Center, which provides a significant advantage. The Hawks are traveling on the road where they typically perform less effectively. Home court advantage historically favors San Antonio in this matchup.
- Both teams are competing in a playoff-contention window. The Spurs, at 10-4, are fighting to maintain their top-5 seed position in the West, while the Hawks' 7-win streak demonstrates they are maximizing their offensive potential. San Antonio's recent home success against Atlanta (winning both recent meetings at Frost Bank Center) provides psychological momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlanta Hawks -110 | San Antonio Spurs -106 | San Antonio Spurs Win | β β β ββ 54% |
| Spread | Atlanta Hawks +1 (-114) | San Antonio Spurs -1 (-106) | San Antonio Spurs -1 | β β β ββ 52% |
| Over/under | Over 230.5 (-110) | Under 230.5 (-110) | Over 230.5 | β β β ββ 56% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Antonio Spurs 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 230.5 1% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: San Antonio Spurs at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Antonio Spurs are favored to win this matchup due to home court advantage, superior head-to-head history, and recent success against this opponent. However, the Hawks' offensive prowess (118.9 PPG) and defensive strength (111.4 PAPG) make this a competitive contest. The tight moneyline odds (-110/-106) reflect the market's view of a closely contested game. The Spurs' ability to defend the three-pointer and control pace will be critical, as the Hawks' three-point shooting (36%) poses a genuine scoring threat.
Predicted Score: San Antonio Spurs 117, Atlanta Hawks 114