Match Analysis: Saint Mary's Gaels vs North Texas Mean Green – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA
Game Overview
The 2025-26 college basketball season matchup features the Saint Mary's Gaels (3-0) hosting the North Texas Mean Green (3-1). Saint Mary's is unbeaten and demonstrating strong home court performance with superior shooting efficiency and rebounding, while North Texas plays a slower pace style with solid defense but has struggled against top teams on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Saint Mary's Gaels demonstrate higher offensive efficiency, shooting 52% from the field and 48% from three-point range, combined with solid free throw shooting (83%). North Texas relies on a slower pace with 67.6 possessions per 40 minutes and averages 107.4 points per 100 possessions but has a weaker shooting percentage near 46%. Saint Mary's also excels in second half scoring and ball movement, contributing to their dominance.
- The teams last met on November 13, 2022, where Saint Mary's won decisively 63-33 as an 8.5-point home favorite. North Texas has won only two of the last six meetings overall, indicating a historical edge to Saint Mary's.
- No significant injury reports surfaced for either team ahead of this game.
- Saint Mary's home court and crowd advantage at the University Credit Union Pavilion is significant. Both teams pace themselves slowly, which historically leads to games going under the total points line. North Texas has an under record in 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs, further supporting a lower scoring game.
- Saint Mary's aims to maintain their unbeaten home record and superiority in the early season, while North Texas seeks to upset a higher-ranked opponent on the road. The Gaels’ motivation is slightly stronger given their undefeated streak and home advantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green: 660, Saint Mary's Gaels: -1050 | Saint Mary's Gaels win | ★★★★★ 91% |
| Spread | North Texas Mean Green: -12.5 -110, Saint Mary's Gaels: 12.5 -110 | Saint Mary's Gaels to cover -12.5 | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Over/under | Over: 131.5 -105, Under: 131.5 -115 | Under 131.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Saint Mary's Gaels -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 131.5 40% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 131.5 at 40% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 46.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Saint Mary's Gaels are predicted to win comfortably by covering the 12.5-point spread. The game is expected to remain under the total points line of 131.5 given both teams’ pace and defensive strengths.
Predicted Score: Saint Mary's Gaels 79 – North Texas Mean Green 65
