Match Analysis: Saint Mary's Gaels vs North Texas Mean Green – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA
Game Overview
Saint Mary's Gaels host North Texas Mean Green in a non-conference NCAA basketball clash, with Saint Mary's undefeated at home and favored heavily. North Texas plays at a slow pace and has a solid defense but lacks the offensive firepower to match the Gaels.
Key Factors to Consider
- Saint Mary's is 3-0 with dominant home wins and strong shooting, especially from 3-point range. North Texas is 3-1 with slower pace, efficient defense, but less offensive output, averaging about 74 points per game.
- Last meeting on Nov 13, 2022, Saint Mary's routed North Texas 63-33 at home. Overall, Saint Mary's has the historical edge and superior execution.
- No significant injuries reported for either team affecting starting lineups or key contributors.
- Game played at Saint Mary's home venue, offering a strong home-court advantage. Both teams play a slow tempo, likely resulting in lower scoring.
- Saint Mary's motivated to maintain perfect home record and continue dominance while North Texas looks to prove competitiveness early in the season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -1050 | Saint Mary's Gaels | β β β β β 93% |
| Spread | -110 | Saint Mary's Gaels -12.5 | β β β β β 88% |
| Over/under | -115 | Under 131.5 | β β β β β 80% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Saint Mary's Gaels -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 131.5 50% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 131.5 at 50% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 57% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Saint Mary's Gaels to win moneyline, cover the 12.5-point spread, and the total to go under 131.5 points
Predicted Score: Saint Mary's 78 – North Texas 63