Match Analysis: Sacramento St Hornets vs Presbyterian Blue Hose – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Sacramento State Arena
Game Overview
Sacramento State Hornets host Presbyterian Blue Hose in a non-conference NCAA Men's Basketball matchup. Sacramento State enters as a moderate favorite, with the spread set at 4.5 points and the total at 154.5. Both teams are coming off mixed results, with Presbyterian showing offensive strength but defensive vulnerabilities, while Sacramento State has struggled to find consistency despite solid home form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sacramento State ranks 344th in scoring (66.2 PPG) but 131st in points allowed (70.5). Presbyterian is 162nd in scoring (74.2 PPG) and 143rd in points allowed (70.9). Presbyterian shoots better from the field (46.8% vs 42.8%) but Sacramento State is slightly better defensively (44.7% FG% allowed vs 45.6%). Presbyterian has a lower turnover rate (10.2 vs 12.8), but Sacramento State has more assists (13.1 vs 12.9).
- Recent H2H shows tight games, with Presbyterian winning the last meeting 59-56 as a double-digit underdog. Sacramento State has covered the spread in 2 of their last 5 meetings, but Presbyterian has shown the ability to keep games close.
- No significant injuries reported for either team.
- Game is played at Sacramento State's home court, which gives them a slight edge. Weather and travel are not factors. ESPN+ broadcast may add minor pressure for home team performance.
- Both teams are looking to build momentum early in the season. Sacramento State is motivated to prove themselves at home after a slow start, while Presbyterian seeks a quality road win to boost their resume.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -205, away: 170 | Sacramento St Hornets | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | home: -4.5, away: 4.5 | Sacramento St Hornets -4.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | over: 154.5, under: 154.5 | Under 154.5 | β β β β β 74% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sacramento St Hornets -11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 154.5 33% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 154.5 at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sacramento State wins a close game, covering the spread, but the total stays under due to defensive struggles and low scoring efficiency.
Predicted Score: Sacramento State 72, Presbyterian 70