Match Analysis: Sacramento Kings vs Atlanta Hawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 3:10 AM UTC
- Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
Game Overview
The Sacramento Kings host the Atlanta Hawks with the Hawks favored by 4 points. The Kings are struggling with a 3-8 record and are currently on a three-game losing streak, while the Hawks hold a 6-5 record and have been performing better on the road. The game has a total points line set around 233.5 to 234.5.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Hawks have been defensively strong recently, winning against the Lakers and Clippers in their last two games. The Kings have a poor home record with a 1-5 spread performance, and are playing the second leg of a back-to-back, potentially tiring the team. The Hawks are 5-6 ATS this season and 3-3 on the road. Kings hit the over 63.6% at home, indicating high-scoring games.
- Recent matchups favor the Hawks with superior win probabilities (circa 61% before game start) and better away performance. Monte Carlo simulations predict a Hawks victory with a close final score around 123-119.
- No specific injury data available from current records, suggesting no major injuries impacting starting lineups or key players for either team.
- Sacramento is impacted by fatigue due to back-to-back scheduling, while Atlanta's defensive momentum and stable recent road performance provide an edge. Venue is Golden 1 Center, home court for the Kings.
- Kings are motivated to end their three-game losing streak at home; Hawks look to continue their positive road performance and maintain defensive dominance.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlanta Hawks: -166, Sacramento Kings: 140 | Atlanta Hawks to win | β β β ββ 61% |
| Spread | Atlanta Hawks: -4 -108, Sacramento Kings: +4 -112 | Atlanta Hawks -4 | β β β ββ 55% |
| Over/under | Over: 233.5 -112, Under: 233.5 -108 | Over 233.5 points | β β β ββ 57% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlanta Hawks -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 233.5 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 233.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Atlanta Hawks are favored to win in a close and competitive game, with the spread in their favor and the likelihood of the total points hitting over the set line.
Predicted Score: Atlanta Hawks 123 – Sacramento Kings 119