Match Analysis: Richmond Spiders vs VMI Keydets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 19, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Robins Center, Richmond, VA
Game Overview
The Richmond Spiders (3-0) host the VMI Keydets (3-2) in a non-conference college basketball matchup. Richmond enters as heavy favorites with a perfect record, while VMI comes off a narrow 69-67 road loss to Jacksonville. This matchup features a significant talent and experience gap, with Richmond dominating the recent head-to-head series and the Spiders controlling most statistical categories.
Key Factors to Consider
- Richmond has started the season undefeated at 3-0 with strong offensive efficiency (42.9% FG, 87.0 PPG) and solid defensive fundamentals (44.3 RPG, 77.9% FT). VMI (3-2) shows inconsistent performance, averaging 88.2 PPG with mixed defensive metrics (allowing 72.2 PPG). The Keydets shot efficiently against Jacksonville (45% FG, 38% 3P, 82% FT) but lack offensive consistency. VMI's recent loss was particularly close despite a 2-point halftime deficit, indicating competitive potential in tight contests.
- Richmond has dominated the recent series, winning the last three consecutive matchups including a 78-71 victory in their most recent meeting. Richmond has won eight of its last nine games against the Southern Conference and has won the first half in eight of its last nine Southern Conference matchups. This historical dominance strongly favors the home team.
- No specific injuries are reported in the available data. Both teams appear to have full rosters available for this contest.
- Richmond plays at home at the Robins Center, providing a significant home-court advantage. VMI is on the road with a 1-1 record away from home this season. Richmond's recent totals have gone OVER in 2 of their last 2 games at home, suggesting potential offensive firepower despite the under prediction.
- Richmond seeks to maintain an undefeated record and continue dominance in non-conference play. VMI will attempt to bounce back from a demoralizing one-point loss and demonstrate competitiveness against a superior opponent. VMI has historically won four of its last five night games against non-AP-ranked opponents, though Richmond's defensive quality presents a different challenge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Richmond: -900 | VMI: +600 | Richmond Spiders Win | ★★★★★ 92% |
| Spread | Richmond -12.5 (-105) | VMI +12.5 (-115) | Richmond Spiders -12.5 | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Over/under | Over 152.5 (-112) | Under 152.5 (-108) | Under 152.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Richmond Spiders 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 152.5 6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 152.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Richmond Spiders victory is highly likely based on superior overall metrics, perfect record, home-court advantage, and dominant recent head-to-head performance. The Spiders' balanced offense and defensive discipline should prove too much for the inconsistent Keydets. Expect Richmond to control the game, particularly in the first half where they excel historically. The final margin should exceed the 12.5-point spread due to Richmond's dominance and VMI's recent defensive vulnerabilities.
Predicted Score: Richmond Spiders 79, VMI Keydets 64
