Match Analysis: Richmond Spiders vs East Carolina Pirates – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Robins Center, Richmond, VA
Game Overview
The Richmond Spiders (1-0) host the East Carolina Pirates (1-0) in a non-conference matchup fresh off season-opening victories. Richmond dominated their opener 84-56, while East Carolina eked out a 92-89 win over Georgia Southern. Both teams are unbeaten but faced drastically different levels of competition so far. East Carolina plays in the stronger AAC, while Richmond is in the Atlantic 10. The Spiders hold a 2-0 series edge, but the last meeting was nearly two decades ago.
Key Factors to Consider
- Richmond looked dominant defensively in their opener, holding Southern Virginia to 56 points, but East Carolina's win over Georgia Southern was high-scoring and much tighter, with both teams shooting around 47% from the field. East Carolina struggled from three (20%) and the free-throw line (63.4%), while Richmond's defensive intensity against a weaker opponent is promising but untested against AAC-level competition.
- Richmond leads the all-time series 2-0, including a 67-65 road win in 2007βancient history for current rosters and coaching staffs.
- No significant injuries reported for either team.
- Home court advantage for Richmond. East Carolina had difficulty creating separation in their opener, suggesting potential road struggles.
- Both teams are looking to build momentum early in the season. East Carolina will be tested against a solid defensive team, while Richmond aims to prove themselves against a higher-conference opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Richmond -310, East Carolina +245 | Richmond wins | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | Richmond -6.5 -105, East Carolina +6.5 -115 | East Carolina covers (+6.5) | β β β ββ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 144.5 -110, Under 144.5 -110 | Under 144.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Richmond Spiders 135% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 144.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Richmond Spiders at 135% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 54.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Richmond is favored and has shown stronger defensive form, but East Carolinaβs talent and conference pedigree suggest they can keep this close. The total projects as a coin flip, with both teams capable of scoring but Richmondβs defense likely to dictate pace.
Predicted Score: Richmond 72, East Carolina 68