Match Analysis: Portland Pilots vs N Colorado Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-23
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Chiles Center, Portland, OR
Game Overview
The Portland Pilots host the Northern Colorado Bears at the Chiles Center in a non-conference matchup. Portland enters with a 4-1 record, riding a strong home streak and recent offensive outburst, while Northern Colorado is 3-1, averaging a high-scoring offense but struggling defensively on the road. Both teams are coming off contrasting results, with Portland winning their last game and Northern Colorado losing a close home contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Portland averages 81.5 points per game, ranks 182nd in field goal percentage (45.8%), and has a strong home record (4-0). They are solid defensively, averaging 39.8 rebounds and 16.3 assists per game. Northern Colorado averages 93.3 points per game (31st in D1), shoots 51.3% from the field, and averages 45 rebounds per game. However, they have struggled defensively, allowing 72 points per game and losing their last outing. Portland has won 7 straight at home, while Northern Colorado has lost 3 of its last 4 road games against WCC opponents.
- Portland has lost 4 of its last 5 games against Big Sky Conference teams, including Northern Colorado. Northern Colorado has won 10 of its last 11 Saturday games and has won the first half in 11 of its last 12 games. Six of Portland's last seven games against Big Sky teams have gone under 149 points, and four of Northern Colorado's last five games against WCC teams have gone under 152 points.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- Portland enjoys a strong home-court advantage, having won their last seven games at Chiles Center. Northern Colorado faces a tough road environment and has struggled in recent road games against WCC competition. The game is being played on a Saturday night, a day on which Northern Colorado has historically performed well.
- Portland is motivated to maintain their home dominance and build momentum after a recent win. Northern Colorado seeks to bounce back from a narrow home loss and prove themselves against a strong WCC opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | N Colorado Bears: -205, Portland Pilots: 168 | Portland Pilots | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Spread | N Colorado Bears: -4.5 -105, Portland Pilots: 4.5 -115 | Portland Pilots +4.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 153.5 -115, Under: 153.5 -105 | Under 153.5 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Portland Pilots 70% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 153.5 21% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Portland Pilots at 70% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Portland is favored at home, but Northern Colorado's high-powered offense and recent Saturday success make this a close matchup. The game is likely to be competitive, with Portland's home advantage and defensive rebounding giving them a slight edge. However, Northern Colorado's scoring ability could keep the game close, and the total is expected to stay under due to defensive trends in previous meetings.
Predicted Score: Portland Pilots 77 – 75 Northern Colorado Bears
