Match Analysis: Pepperdine Waves vs New Orleans Privateers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 18, 2025
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Firestone Fieldhouse, Malibu, CA
Game Overview
New Orleans Privateers (2-1) travel to face Pepperdine Waves (2-2) in a non-conference matchup. Pepperdine is favored by 3.5 points at home, with an over/under total of 154.5 points. This matchup features contrasting trends, with New Orleans struggling in Tuesday non-conference games while Pepperdine has shown strength in night games at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pepperdine averages 86.3 points per game (99th nationally) with a defensive rating allowing 79.5 points (273rd). They shoot 47.3% from the field (129th) and 30.5% from three (262nd). New Orleans has been competitive early in the season at 2-1 but has shown vulnerability, recently losing to LSU 58-93 and failing to cover spreads consistently.
- No direct head-to-head history is provided in the available data. However, betting trends show Pepperdine has won each of its last four night games at Firestone Fieldhouse after coming off overtime, suggesting comfort in their home environment during evening contests.
- No specific injuries are reported for either team in the available search results.
- New Orleans has lost each of its last 10 Tuesday games against non-conference opponents, a significant historical trend. Pepperdine plays at home where they have demonstrated recent success. The late evening start time (9:00 PM) may affect player performance and fatigue levels.
- Pepperdine seeks to improve their 2-2 record with a home victory, while New Orleans attempts to maintain their 2-1 start. New Orleans has motivation to break their Tuesday non-conference losing streak, but this represents an uphill challenge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pepperdine -167 | New Orleans +130 | Pepperdine Waves | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Pepperdine -3.5 (-110) | New Orleans +3.5 (-115) | Pepperdine -3.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 154.5 (-115) | Under 154.5 (-110) | Under 154.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pepperdine Waves -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 154.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 154.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Pepperdine Waves are favored to win this matchup based on home court advantage, strong recent performance in night games at Firestone Fieldhouse, and New Orleans' historical struggles on Tuesday evenings against non-conference opponents. The home team should cover the 3.5-point spread. The game total is likely to stay under 154.5 based on Pepperdine's modest offensive output and defensive effectiveness.
Predicted Score: Pepperdine 79, New Orleans 74 (Total: 153)