Match Analysis: Pepperdine Waves vs N Colorado Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Firestone Fieldhouse, Malibu, CA
Game Overview
Northern Colorado Bears (2-0) travel to Malibu to face the Pepperdine Waves (2-1) in a non-conference matchup. Northern Colorado enters as a slight favorite despite playing on the road, holding the top spot in the Big Sky Conference with an undefeated record. Pepperdine, ranked 8th in the WCC, comes off a dominant 113-76 home victory but carries a 0-1 away record. This matchup features contrasting styles and conference strength, with Northern Colorado's road inexperience testing against Pepperdine's strong home court advantage at Firestone Fieldhouse.
Key Factors to Consider
- Northern Colorado has dominated at home with two convincing victories (101-65 over Colorado Christian and previous win). The Bears lead the Big Sky Conference standings and have won 10 of their last 12 night games while winning the first half in 11 of their last 12 night games. However, they have lost 4 of their last 5 night games against non-conference opponents. Pepperdine averages 63.0 points per game with defensive efficiency concerns (opponent three-point percentage of 40.4% is concerning). The Waves are 1-0 ATS but 0-1 in Over/Under situations. Pepperdine's home record is 2-0, but they are 0-1 away.
- No direct head-to-head history is available in the search results. However, historical trends indicate Pepperdine has won each of its last seven games against Big Sky Conference opponents at Firestone Fieldhouse, providing a significant home court advantage. Northern Colorado has struggled historically in the first half of road games against the West Coast Conference, having lost the first half in each of their last four road games against WCC opponents.
- No injury information is available in the provided search results.
- The game is played at Firestone Fieldhouse in Malibu, California, providing Pepperdine with significant home court advantage. The 9:00 PM ET start time (late evening) historically favors Northern Colorado, as they excel in night games. However, the road environment and travel to California could impact Northern Colorado's performance. Pepperdine has struggled in night games against non-conference opponents, having lost each of its last seven such games.
- Northern Colorado seeks to maintain their undefeated record and prove their capability on the road against a Power Conference (WCC) opponent. Pepperdine aims to establish home court dominance and improve their conference standing while avoiding losses at Firestone Fieldhouse. Both teams are motivated to establish early-season credentials in non-conference play.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | N Colorado Bears -115 | Pepperdine Waves -105 | Northern Colorado Bears | β β β ββ 58% |
| Spread | N Colorado Bears -1.5 (-120) | Pepperdine Waves +1.5 (100) | Northern Colorado Bears -1.5 | β β β ββ 56% |
| Over/under | Over 153.5 (-108) | Under 153.5 (-112) | Under 153.5 | β β β ββ 54% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | N Colorado Bears -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 153.5 -2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: N Colorado Bears at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Northern Colorado Bears are favored to win this matchup at a slight margin despite playing on the road. The Bears' superior night game performance (10 of 12 wins), combined with their strong first-half execution (11 of 12), provides significant advantages. However, Pepperdine's home court dominance and undefeated home record present a real threat. The Bears' historical struggles in night games against non-conference opponents and their 0-0 away record introduce uncertainty. Northern Colorado's depth and conference strength edge out Pepperdine's home advantage, but this is a competitive matchup with genuine upset potential for the Waves.
Predicted Score: Northern Colorado 78 – Pepperdine 76