Match Analysis: Pepperdine Waves vs Fresno St Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-27
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Acrisure Arena, Palm Desert, California
Game Overview
The Fresno State Bulldogs (5-2) face off against the Pepperdine Waves (3-3) in a closely contested NCAA basketball matchup at a neutral site. Fresno State enters the game on a three-game winning streak and is a modest favorite by 2.5 points. Both teams have similar scoring averages, with Fresno State scoring around 76.8 points per game and Pepperdine about 73.5 points per game. The over/under is set around 148.5 points, suggesting an expected competitive and moderately high-scoring contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fresno State demonstrates a slight edge in recent form and scoring margin (+4.3 average margin vs. Pepperdine's +2.5). The Bulldogs rank higher in national offense (ranked 155th in points per game vs. 203rd for Pepperdine) and marginally better in turnovers, although both teams have somewhat high turnover rates. Pepperdine excels in free-throw shooting percentage (92.9% in latest data) and rebounds, but Fresno State has a better assist-production rate and slightly higher shooting efficiency.
- Recent data shows competitive results between the two teams with Fresno State winning their latest meeting and holding a slight advantage in scoring and defense. Fresno State also has a better ATS record but no detailed comprehensive H2H historical data was found explicitly for this season.
- No specific injury or player availability information was provided for this matchup in the search results, implying that both teams likely have their typical rosters available.
- The game is held at a neutral siteβAcrisure Arenaβeliminating typical home-court advantage. Weather or travel constraints are not significant factors as the location is neutral and near Pepperdine's usual base in California.
- Fresno State is riding a three-game winning streak and is aiming to build momentum early in the season, which adds incentive. Pepperdine, with a 3-3 record, looks to improve its standing and take advantage of close margins in games to secure a statement win away from typical home courts.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fresno St Bulldogs: -142, Pepperdine Waves: 120 | Fresno State Bulldogs to win | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Fresno St Bulldogs: -2.5 100, Pepperdine Waves: +2.5 -120 | Fresno State to cover the -2.5 spread | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over: 148.5 -110, Under: 148.5 -110 | Over 148.5 points | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fresno St Bulldogs 28% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 148.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Fresno St Bulldogs at 28% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fresno State is predicted to edge out Pepperdine closely, leveraging slightly better offensive consistency and recent form. The game is expected to be competitive, with Fresno State covering the 2.5-point spread and the final score surpassing the total points line of 148.5.
Predicted Score: Fresno State 76 – Pepperdine 73