Match Analysis: Paris Basketball vs Virtus Segafredo Bologna – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-09
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: Adidas Arena
Game Overview
Paris Basketball hosts Virtus Segafredo Bologna in a EuroLeague Group Stage match. Paris is favored at home, with betting markets and recent H2H results signaling strength, but Bologna remains a competitive side capable of an upset on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Paris Basketball has shown strong recent form, winning 6 of their last 10 matches, and holds a home-court advantage in a modern arena with passionate support[2]. Bologna, while respected, has been less consistent away from home and may struggle defensively against Paris' athleticism.
- In their most recent competitive meeting (07/02/2025), Paris Basketball defeated Bologna 83-77[1]. This recent result, combined with a 71.2% implied win probability for Paris in predictive models[2], suggests Paris has a psychological edge.
- No major injury news reported for either side. Lineups and rotations are expected to be at full strength barring last-minute updates.
- Home court advantage, no weather concerns (indoor venue), and strong local fan presence. No unusual travel or scheduling issues noted.
- Both teams are highly motivated for EuroLeague success, but Paris may have extra edge to solidify their position early in the group stage, especially after a recent win over Bologna.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Paris -205, Bologna +170 | Paris wins | β β β β β 71% |
Spread | Paris -5.5 (-108), Bologna +5.5 (-112) | Paris covers -5.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 171.5 (-108), Under 171.5 (-112) | Over 171.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Paris Basketball 92% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 171.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Paris Basketball at 92% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 53.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Paris Basketball is the value play across all major markets. Their superior recent form, H2H edge, and home court make them a strong favorite, while the spread and total both present opportunities ahead of closing line value.
Predicted Score: Paris Basketball 86 β Virtus Segafredo Bologna 78