Match Analysis: Oregon Ducks vs Oregon St Beavers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 17, 2025
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: Matthew Knight Arena, Eugene, OR
Game Overview
In-state rivalry matchup between undefeated Oregon Ducks (3-0) and Oregon State Beavers (3-0) in the Big Ten. This is the first significant test for both teams this season. Oregon enters as a strong home favorite at -13.5 after impressive recent wins, while Oregon State has won close contests but faces a major step up in competition.
Key Factors to Consider
- Oregon is 3-0 but has struggled to dominate expected wins, beating Hawaii by 1 and Rice by 4 before a 14-point victory over South Dakota State. Jackson Shelstad (22 points, 8 assists vs SDSU) leads the Ducks' balanced offensive attack. Oregon State is also 3-0, including a narrow 2-point win over North Texas. Oregon has elite perimeter (Shelstad) and interior (Bittle) talent that Oregon State cannot match defensively. Oregon State ranks 177th in defensive efficiency, a critical vulnerability against Oregon's high-powered offense.
- Last season Oregon defeated Oregon State by 3 points on the road. This is Oregon State's first road game against a power conference opponent this season.
- No significant injuries reported for either team.
- Both programs recently transitioned post-Pac-12 collapse. Oregon is a Big Ten school with Nike resources and aspirations to compete nationally (noted upcoming Auburn matchup). Oregon State is adjusting to new conference alignment. Home court advantage is significant for Oregon at Matthew Knight Arena.
- Oregon highly motivated to make a statement and validate championship aspirations. Oregon State facing a true test of their early-season credentials against elite in-state rival. Oregon likely more focused given Auburn matchup looming; Oregon State fighting to prove legitimacy as tournament team.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Oregon Ducks -1200 / Oregon St Beavers +740 | Oregon Ducks Moneyline | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Oregon Ducks -13.5 (-110) / Oregon St Beavers +13.5 (-110) | Oregon Ducks -13.5 (PASS – Close to fair value) | β β β ββ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 143.5 (-106) / Under 143.5 (-114) | Over 143.5 | β β β β β 71% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Oregon Ducks -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 143.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 143.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Oregon Ducks win decisively. Despite Oregon State's undefeated record, the talent disparity and defensive vulnerability (177th defensive efficiency) is too significant. Oregon will establish Bittle inside early and control the tempo, preventing Oregon State from staying close. The Ducks' superior perimeter and interior talent will prove overwhelming.
Predicted Score: Oregon 74, Oregon State 58