Match Analysis: Omaha Mavericks vs Southern Utah Thunderbirds – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Baxter Arena, Omaha, NE
Game Overview
The Omaha Mavericks (0-3) host the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (1-2) in an NCAA men's basketball game. Omaha is favored heavily with a -360 moneyline and -9.5 point spread as they have a strong home advantage at Baxter Arena, where they have won their last 10 games against non-AP-ranked opponents. Southern Utah has struggled recently, losing six straight non-conference games and performing poorly as underdogs, especially on Saturdays. Both teams have faced challenges, but statistical momentum favors Omaha.
Key Factors to Consider
- Omaha averages 77 points per game on 45.8% shooting but allows 85 points on 45.6% shooting. Their top scorers include Lance Waddles (17.3 PPG) and Tony Osburn (16 PPG). Southern Utah has a 1-2 record with poor recent form, losing six non-conference matchups. Omaha is 0-3 but maintains home dominance statistics.
- Recent head-to-head results favor Omaha on home floor, especially against unranked teams. No detailed H2H stats are available, but Omaha has historically won at Baxter Arena against similar caliber opponents.
- No explicit injury information available from current data sources.
- All betting public activity heavily favors Omaha, with 100% of bets on them. Southern Utah suffers from a very poor historical record as underdog (2-25 SU in last 27 games) and poor Saturday performance (1-10 in last 11 Saturday games). Weather or venue disruptions not applicable.
- Omaha is motivated to break their losing streak (0-3) and capitalize on home-court advantage. Southern Utah seeks to end losing streaks but faces historical and situational disadvantages.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Omaha Mavericks: -360, Southern Utah Thunderbirds: +285 | Omaha Mavericks win | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Omaha Mavericks: -9.5 (-108), Southern Utah Thunderbirds: +9.5 (-112) | Omaha Mavericks -9.5 cover | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over 155.5: -108, Under 155.5: -112 | Under 155.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Omaha Mavericks -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 155.5 23% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 155.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Omaha Mavericks are strongly favored to win, likely covering the -9.5 spread and hitting the moneyline due to home advantage, better team performance metrics, and public betting trends. The total points will likely stay under the 155.5 mark given both teams' recent scoring and defensive patterns in similar matchups.
Predicted Score: Omaha Mavericks 80 – Southern Utah Thunderbirds 70