Match Analysis: Olympiacos vs Žalgiris – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-12
- Time: 7:15 PM UTC
- Location: Peace and Friendship Stadium
Game Overview
Olympiacos, one of Euroleague’s top teams, hosts Žalgiris Kaunas in Matchday 10. Both teams feature strong international cores, but Olympiacos is favored at home with better recent form and deeper rotation. Žalgiris has shown grit in past H2Hs but remains an underdog on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Olympiacos is on a hot streak (5-0 in last 5), averaging ~87 PPG and displaying elite defense. Žalgiris is solid but less consistent, averaging ~77 PPG—both metrics from official team stats[9]. Olympiacos' top-end talent (e.g., Sasha Vezenkov, Kostas Antetokounmpo) gives them matchup edges.
- Olympiacos has dominated recent H2Hs, including a 95-76 and 89-72 victory in past encounters[9]. Žalgiris’ sole recent win came by 2 points, but Olympiacos has generally covered the spread comfortably.
- No major injuries reported for either side at this time, ensuring both teams will field close to full strength.
- Olympiacos benefits from home-court advantage and a raucous Greek crowd. No significant travel or scheduling disadvantages noted for either team.
- Both teams are motivated for Euroleague playoff positioning, but Olympiacos has a clearer incentive to protect home court and momentum as a leading contender.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Olympiacos -305 | Žalgiris 245 | Olympiacos | ★★★★☆ 87% |
| Spread | Olympiacos -6.5 (-115) | Žalgiris +6.5 (-105) | Olympiacos -6.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 162.5 (-112) | Under 162.5 (-108) | Over 162.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Olympiacos 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 162.5 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 162.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Olympiacos wins convincingly, covers the spread, and the game goes over the posted total.
Predicted Score: Olympiacos 89, Žalgiris 77