Match Analysis: Ole Miss Rebels vs Memphis Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 12, 2025
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: The Sandy and John Black Pavilion, Oxford, MS
Game Overview
The Ole Miss Rebels (2-0) host the Memphis Tigers (1-0) in a non-conference matchup. Ole Miss enters as a heavy favorite, having dominated their first two opponents with impressive defensive metrics, while Memphis comes off a solid road victory against San Francisco. This matchup features a stark contrast in performance trajectories, with Ole Miss showing dominant form and Memphis looking to establish consistency early in the season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ole Miss has been exceptional defensively, allowing only 61.5 points per game while scoring 87 points per game on 49.2% shooting. The Rebels show balanced offensive play with 17.5 assists per game and strong defensive output with 5.5 blocks and 8 steals per game. Memphis won their opener 76-70 against San Francisco with modest 39.4% field goal shooting but solid three-point range at 37% (10 of 27). Memphis demonstrated defensive intensity with 15 steals and forced 15 turnovers. However, Memphis' free throw shooting at 53.8% (14 of 26) represents a potential weakness in close games.
- Memphis holds the historical advantage over Ole Miss, winning their last meeting 87-70 and claiming 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matchups. This provides psychological momentum for the Tigers despite being underdogs in this contest.
- No significant injury information is available from the search results for either team.
- The game is played at Ole Miss' home court in Oxford, providing the Rebels with home-court advantage. Ole Miss has been undefeated at home (2-0) this season. The Rebels have also shown they can dominate inferior competition, as evidenced by their 86-65 victory over Louisiana-Monroe, suggesting potential for complacency against a mid-major opponent like Memphis.
- Ole Miss is seeking to maintain undefeated status and establish themselves as a conference contender. Memphis aims to build on their road victory and prove competitive in the non-conference schedule. The Rebels have demonstrated that they win decisively as moneyline favorites, going 9-0 in games where they were favored at -431 or better odds.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis +480 / Ole Miss -670 | Ole Miss Rebels Win | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Memphis +10.5 (-110) / Ole Miss -10.5 (-110) | Ole Miss -10.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 156.5 (-110) / Under 156.5 (-110) | Under 156.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ole Miss Rebels -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 156.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 156.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ole Miss is strongly favored to win this matchup based on superior defensive performance, home-court advantage, and undefeated record. However, Memphis' historical head-to-head advantage and solid defensive intensity in their opener present value opportunities for contrarian bettors. Ole Miss' tendency to control pace and force turnovers (8.6 per game allowed) should effectively neutralize Memphis' reliance on three-point shooting. The most likely outcome is an Ole Miss victory by 8-12 points.
Predicted Score: Ole Miss 76, Memphis 64