Match Analysis: Oklahoma St Cowboys vs South Florida Bulls – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-20
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater
Game Overview
The Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-0) host the South Florida Bulls (3-1) in an early season NCAA basketball matchup. Oklahoma State is undefeated but has faced mostly easier opponents, while South Florida has shown strong scoring ability and recently posted a 108-89 win on the road. Oklahoma State boasts strong home performance and efficient shooting, but South Florida presents a solid challenge with a higher scoring average and decent defense, especially from beyond the arc.
Key Factors to Consider
- Oklahoma State is 4-0 overall, with dominant recent wins including an 85-69 home victory over Texas A&M–Corpus Christi, shooting 50% from the field. They average 91 points per game but have struggled somewhat from three-point range (around 29%). South Florida is 3-1, averaging 100+ points per game, with a recent 108-89 win. They have strong offensive metrics, including a better scoring rate per 100 possessions compared to Oklahoma State, and strong perimeter defense limiting opponents to 26% from three-point range.
- No detailed recent head-to-head statistical results are reported, but the matchup is competitive with Oklahoma State holding the home advantage. Previous meetings do not strongly favor either team according to available sources.
- No specific injury information available from current data; no major absences reported for either team entering this game.
- Game played at Oklahoma State's home court, Gallagher-Iba Arena, giving the Cowboys a home-court advantage. Oklahoma State’s schedule strength is low, ranking 326th in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, which may slightly bias their undefeated record.
- Oklahoma State seeks to maintain its undefeated record early in the season. South Florida aims to prove their competitiveness against a strong but lightly tested opponent, possibly looking to capitalize on Oklahoma State’s shooting struggles.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Oklahoma State Cowboys: -260, South Florida Bulls: 210 | Oklahoma State Cowboys win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Oklahoma State Cowboys: -5.5 -104, South Florida Bulls: +5.5 -118 | South Florida Bulls +5.5 (cover the spread) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 180.5 -110, Under: 180.5 -110 | Under 180.5 total points | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Oklahoma St Cowboys 133% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 180.5 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Oklahoma St Cowboys at 133% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 63.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Oklahoma State is favored to win due to home advantage and undefeated status, but South Florida’s offensive firepower and perimeter defense make it likely to be a close game. Taking into account recent form and stats, Oklahoma State is expected to win by a narrow margin, with the total points likely staying under the 180.5 line.
Predicted Score: Oklahoma State Cowboys 89 – South Florida Bulls 83
