Match Analysis: Ohio Bobcats vs Illinois St Redbirds – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-07
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Convocation Center, Athens
Game Overview
This NCAA Men's basketball game features the Ohio Bobcats hosting the Illinois State Redbirds. Ohio enters with a 0-1 record, while Illinois State is 0-0. Both teams are early into the season and looking to start strong. The Redbirds are slight favorites on the moneyline and spread, reflecting perceived edge despite Ohio playing at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ohio Bobcats have lost their only game so far and have struggled against the spread as well. Their recent games have gone over the total points line 100% of the time (1 of 1 games). Illinois State's past shooting efficiency is impressive, ranking among the best in the Missouri Valley Conference with a 48.2% field goal and 37.6% three-point shooting last season. However, no record for this season is yet available.
- Historical head-to-head data between Ohio and Illinois State is limited from current sources, but past results have been competitive and close with slight point differences. No significant recent dominance by either team is evident.
- No significant injury reports available for either team as of now, indicating both squads are likely near full strength.
- The game is at Ohio's home venue, the Convocation Center in Athens, which can provide some home advantage. Public betting heavily favors Ohio on the spread and moneyline at some sportsbooks, but difference in odds suggests some market divergence.
- Ohio is looking to bounce back from an opening loss and establish momentum at home, whereas Illinois State is eager to begin the season on a winning note, potentially giving them high motivation on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Illinois St Redbirds: -125, Ohio Bobcats: 105 | Illinois St Redbirds win | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | Illinois St Redbirds: -1.5 -110, Ohio Bobcats: +1.5 -110 | Illinois St Redbirds -1.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over: 158.5 -110, Under: 158.5 -110 | Over 158.5 points | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Illinois St Redbirds -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 158.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 158.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Ohio's home advantage and public betting lean toward them combined with Illinois State's strong shooting profile, this game is expected to be close and competitive. A slight edge is given to Illinois State on the moneyline, but Ohio could cover the spread playing at home.
Predicted Score: Illinois St 80 – Ohio 78