Match Analysis: Northwestern Wildcats vs Cleveland St Vikings – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-10
- Time: 1:30 AM UTC
- Location: Welsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, IL
Game Overview
Northwestern Wildcats (2-0 at home) host Cleveland State Vikings (1-1, 0-1 away) in a non-conference NCAA Basketball matchup. Northwestern comes off a dominant 76-52 win, while Cleveland State eked out a 71-70 win last time out[2][4]. Northwestern is a large favorite, but Cleveland State has some offensive firepower and could exploit Northwestern scoring droughts.
Key Factors to Consider
- Northwestern is 2-0, allowing just 99 points through two games, with strong defensive metrics (51.7% FG, 36 rebounds, 20 assists vs. Boston U)[4]. Cleveland State is averaging 79.5 ppg but surrendering 80.5 ppg on 42.2% shooting, with Dayan Nessah leading at 18 ppg[3]. Cleveland Stateβs defense is suspect, while Northwesternβs is elite early.
- No recent H2H data available from search results.
- No significant injuries reported for either team in available sources.
- Northwestern has tougher games (DePaul, Virginia) coming upβpotential for a look-ahead letdown. Cleveland State rarely gets this level of opponent, so motivation likely high[3]. Home court advantage is significant for Northwestern.
- Cleveland State is the underdog with nothing to lose, while Northwestern is expected to dominate but could be overconfident or distracted by upcoming schedule[3].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cleveland State +1300, Northwestern -2800 | Northwestern Wildcats | β β β β β 93% |
| Spread | Cleveland State +20.5 -118, Northwestern -20.5 -102 | Cleveland State +20.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 147.5 -112, Under 147.5 -108 | Under 147.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 147.5 25% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 147.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Northwestern is the clear favorite, especially at home, but Cleveland Stateβs scoring ability and Northwesternβs potential for offensive droughts make the spread tighter than the odds suggest. The under is the sharpest play given both teamsβ defensive tendencies and recent totals trends[2][4].
Predicted Score: Northwestern 74, Cleveland State 58