Match Analysis: Northern Kentucky Norse vs Eastern Kentucky Colonels – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-25
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Truist Arena, Highland Heights, KY
Game Overview
Northern Kentucky Norse (3-2) host Eastern Kentucky Colonels (1-4) in a non-conference matchup. Northern Kentucky is favored at home, with a strong recent home record and a more balanced performance this season. Eastern Kentucky has struggled, particularly on the road and against non-conference opponents. The game is expected to be competitive, with Northern Kentucky favored to cover the spread and win outright.
Key Factors to Consider
- Northern Kentucky has a 3-2 record, averaging 69.7 points per game and allowing 78.7. They are 2-0 at home and have won their last two games. Eastern Kentucky is 1-4, averaging 84.8 points per game but allowing 85.4. They are 0-2 away and have lost their last four games. Northern Kentucky has a better defensive record and more consistent scoring.
- Recent head-to-head matchups show Northern Kentucky has won the last seven games at home against Eastern Kentucky. Eastern Kentucky has lost each of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
- No reported injuries for either team. Both teams are expected to be at full strength.
- Northern Kentucky has a strong home court advantage, having won their last seven home games. Eastern Kentucky has struggled on the road, losing all away games this season. The game is being played on a Monday night, which has historically been a disadvantage for Northern Kentucky against non-conference opponents.
- Northern Kentucky is motivated to maintain their home winning streak and improve their record. Eastern Kentucky is looking to break their losing streak and secure their first road win of the season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Eastern Kentucky Colonels: 140, Northern Kentucky Norse: -166 | Northern Kentucky Norse | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | Eastern Kentucky Colonels: 3.5 -115, Northern Kentucky Norse: -3.5 -105 | Northern Kentucky Norse -3.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 154.5 -110, Under: 154.5 -110 | Under 154.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Northern Kentucky Norse 2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 154.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 154.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Northern Kentucky Norse are favored to win and cover the spread. The game is expected to be close, but Northern Kentucky's home advantage and better defensive record give them the edge. The total points are likely to be under 154.5, as both teams have shown a tendency to keep games low-scoring in recent matchups.
Predicted Score: Northern Kentucky Norse 72, Eastern Kentucky Colonels 70