Match Analysis: Northern Iowa Panthers vs South Dakota St Jackrabbits – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: McLeod Center, Cedar Falls, IA
Game Overview
Northern Iowa Panthers host South Dakota State Jackrabbits in a matchup of similarly strong teams, both with 20-12 records. Northern Iowa is a heavy moneyline favorite and favored by 9.5 points at home. The game is projected to be moderately paced with a total points line at 152.5.
Key Factors to Consider
- Northern Iowa has won 2 of their last 5 games and has a strong defensive profile, allowing 57 PPG recently. South Dakota State has won their last 2 games and boasts a higher scoring offense, averaging 71.5 PPG but also allowing 64 PPG.
- South Dakota State won the last H2H meeting decisively 82-50, but Northern Iowa is playing at home this time. Both teams split recent results but Northern Iowa looks stronger defensively.
- Northern Iowa is missing guard RJ Taylor for the season due to Achilles injury, which could impact perimeter scoring and depth.
- The game is at Northern Iowa's home McLeod Center, giving them home court advantage. Public betting is split 50/50 but books heavily favor Northern Iowa on the moneyline.
- Both teams have similar records and should be motivated to establish early season momentum. Northern Iowa’s recent close losses against the spread and South Dakota State’s confidence from recent wins shape motivation levels.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -395 (Northern Iowa), +310 (South Dakota State) | Northern Iowa Panthers | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | -108 (Northern Iowa -9.5), -112 (South Dakota State +9.5) | Northern Iowa Panthers -9.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | -108 Over 152.5, -112 Under 152.5 | Under 152.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Northern Iowa Panthers -15% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 152.5 14% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 152.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Northern Iowa Panthers to cover the -9.5 spread
Predicted Score: Northern Iowa Panthers 78 – South Dakota State 67
