Match Analysis: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Cal Poly Mustangs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-25
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome, Flagstaff, AZ
Game Overview
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks host Cal Poly Mustangs in an NCAA Men's Basketball matchup. The game is scheduled for November 25, 2025, at 1:00 AM UTC. Northern Arizona is coming off a home record of 2-0, while Cal Poly has a 2-3 away record. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+ and the Northern Arizona Healthcare NAU Lumberjack Radio Network.
Key Factors to Consider
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks have a 2-2 overall record and are undefeated at home (2-0). Cal Poly Mustangs are 3-3 overall and have struggled away from home (2-3). Cal Poly has allowed an average of 89 points in their last three games, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Northern Arizona has shown strong offensive output, scoring 108 points in a recent home game.
- Recent head-to-head matchups show Northern Arizona winning the last meeting at home. Both teams have played each other in previous seasons, with Northern Arizona holding a slight edge in home games.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- The game is being played at Northern Arizona's home venue, which could provide a home-court advantage. The venue is known for its supportive crowd and energetic atmosphere.
- Northern Arizona is motivated to extend their home winning streak and capitalize on Cal Poly's recent defensive struggles. Cal Poly is looking to bounce back from recent losses and improve their away record.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cal Poly Mustangs: -142, Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: 120 | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Cal Poly Mustangs: -2.5, Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: 2.5 | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks +2.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 162.5, Under: 162.5 | Over 162.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 21% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 162.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks are favored to win this game due to their strong home record and recent offensive performance. Cal Poly's defensive issues and away record suggest they may struggle to keep up with Northern Arizona's scoring.
Predicted Score: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 85, Cal Poly Mustangs 78