Match Analysis: North Texas Mean Green vs Central Arkansas Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 21, 2025
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: UNT Coliseum, Denton, Texas
Game Overview
The North Texas Mean Green (3-2 record) host the Central Arkansas Bears (1-3 record) in a college basketball matchup where the home team is heavily favored. North Texas enters as a significant favorite with a -16.5 point spread, reflecting their superior record and home court advantage. Central Arkansas arrives after consecutive losses, most recently an overtime defeat to Samford (84-77), while North Texas suffered a blowout loss to Saint Mary's (80-49) on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- North Texas shows inconsistency with a 3-2 record but has demonstrated resilience, going 3-1 against the spread in their last 5 games and 2-1 ATS in road games. Central Arkansas struggles significantly at 1-3, indicating deeper team issues beyond individual performances. North Texas has won recent games against Northwestern (80-53) and Illinois (64-62), suggesting offensive capability when playing well. The Mean Green's defensive performance has been questionable, allowing Saint Mary's to score 80 points in a recent outing.
- No recent head-to-head history is available in the provided data, suggesting these teams rarely meet or this may be an early-season matchup.
- Specific injury information is not detailed in available reports, though handicappers indicate injuries are factored into their analysis.
- The game is scheduled for 1:00 AM UTC on Friday, which is an unusual late-night/early-morning time slot that may affect player performance and rest. The venue (UNT Coliseum, Denton) provides North Texas with the home court advantage, though this hasn't been a strong indicator of covering the spread in recent games.
- North Texas seeks to improve their .500 record and establish dominance at home after the recent loss to Saint Mary's. Central Arkansas must find consistency and avoid falling further below .500, though the odds suggest they are outmatched.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Texas -4500 / Central Arkansas +1300 | North Texas Mean Green Moneyline | β β β β β 82% |
| Spread | North Texas -16.5 (-110) / Central Arkansas +16.5 (-110) | North Texas -16.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 134.5 (-114) / Under 134.5 (-110) | Over 134.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 134.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 134.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
North Texas Mean Green should win comfortably at home against a struggling Central Arkansas team. The combination of superior record, home court advantage, and Central Arkansas's 1-3 start strongly favors the hosts. However, the sharp oddsmakers pricing reflects this disparity, making moneyline bets less attractive from a value perspective. The spread represents the most balanced betting opportunity, though North Texas remains the clear favorite to cover.
Predicted Score: North Texas 78, Central Arkansas 62 (North Texas by 16)