Match Analysis: North Dakota Fighting Hawks vs CSU Northridge Matadors – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Betty Engelstad Sioux Center, Grand Forks, ND
Game Overview
Early season matchup between Cal State Northridge Matadors (1-1) and North Dakota Fighting Hawks (0-2). Both teams coming off losses, with CSU Northridge showing more offensive firepower but also inconsistency. North Dakota struggles defensively, especially in allowing points and opponent shooting percentages.
Key Factors to Consider
- CSU Northridge averages 78.0 PPG but was blown out 86-57 by Northern Iowa in their last outing. North Dakota averages only 66.0 PPG and gives up 82.5 PPG, with poor defensive metrics across FG%, FT%, and 3PT% allowed[4]. CSU Northridge has shown a higher ceiling offensively, with Josh O’Garro and Larry Hughes leading the way[3].
- No recent head-to-head data available. Both teams lost their last games, but CSU Northridge’s offensive stats are superior[2][4].
- No reported injuries or absences for either team.
- Game is at North Dakota’s home court, but the Hawks are winless at home this season[1][2]. No significant travel or scheduling advantages noted.
- Both teams seeking a rebound win after disappointing losses. North Dakota, winless, has more desperation, but CSU Northridge has higher talent and statistical upside.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | CSU Northridge -218, North Dakota +180 | CSU Northridge moneyline | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Spread | CSU Northridge -6.5 -112, North Dakota +6.5 -108 | CSU Northridge -6.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 155.5 -112, Under 155.5 -108 | Over 155.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | CSU Northridge Matadors 88% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 155.5 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: CSU Northridge Matadors at 88% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 48.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
CSU Northridge is favored for good reason—better offense, less porous defense, and a higher floor. North Dakota’s youth and defensive struggles make them vulnerable, especially against a team that can score in bunches. Project a higher-scoring game than the market expects, but CSU Northridge covers comfortably.
Predicted Score: CSU Northridge 84, North Dakota 74
