Match Analysis: North Carolina Tar Heels vs Radford Highlanders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 11, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
Game Overview
No. 25 North Carolina Tar Heels (2-0) host the unranked Radford Highlanders (2-0) in a non-conference matchup at the Dean E. Smith Center. Both teams enter with perfect records, but significant talent and experience gaps exist between the programs. This is a classic high-major versus mid-major clash with heavily skewed odds favoring the home team.
Key Factors to Consider
- North Carolina averages 90.5 points per game on strong offensive execution, led by Caleb Wilson (23 PPG) and Henry Veesaar (17 PPG). Kyan Evans orchestrates the offense with 4 assists per game. Radford averages 89.5 PPG on 54.9% shooting but faces stiffer competition. Radford allows 68 PPG and holds opponents to 42.1% shooting. Del Jones (15 PPG, 5.5 APG) and Dennis Parker Jr. (14.5 PPG) lead the Radford offense. North Carolina's defense is more experienced and has faced higher-caliber opponents (Kansas victory at 87-74).
- North Carolina defeated Radford 86-70 in their last matchup, demonstrating clear superiority. UNC's +16 point victory shows consistent defensive control and offensive execution over Radford.
- No significant injuries reported for either team.
- North Carolina is ranked No. 25 and playing at home in front of a friendly crowd at the Dean E. Smith Center. Radford is making a road trip to Chapel Hill, which typically favors the home team. The ACC Network broadcast provides additional exposure for UNC, a program with significantly more resources and recruiting advantages.
- North Carolina seeks to extend their winning streak to 3-0 and build momentum in the ACC. Radford aims for an upset win on the road, but the motivation gap is substantialβUNC is fighting for tournament positioning while Radford is building toward tournament eligibility. UNC's recent win over Kansas demonstrates they are capable of competing with elite programs.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Carolina -8000 | Radford +1800 | North Carolina Tar Heels | β β β β β 94% |
| Spread | North Carolina -21.5 -110 | Radford +21.5 -110 | North Carolina -21.5 | β β β β β 76% |
| Over/under | Over 156.5 -114 | Under 156.5 -110 | Under 156.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Carolina Tar Heels 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 156.5 18% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 156.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
North Carolina Tar Heels dominate Radford decisively at home, covering the 21.5-point spread with an efficient offensive performance and suffocating defense.
Predicted Score: North Carolina 91, Radford 68