Match Analysis: North Carolina Tar Heels vs Navy Midshipmen – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-18
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
Game Overview
The North Carolina Tar Heels (4-0) host the Navy Midshipmen (2-2) in a non-conference matchup at the Dean E. Smith Center. North Carolina is heavily favored, coming off dominant wins and a strong home record, while Navy has shown inconsistency, especially on the road. The game will be televised on the ACC Network.
Key Factors to Consider
- North Carolina has started the season 4-0, averaging 91 points per game and allowing just 63.8, with wins over Kansas, Central Arkansas, Radford, and NC Central. Their offense is efficient, and their defense has been stifling. Navy is 2-2, with a blowout win over Presbyterian and Washington College, but losses to Yale and Penn State. Their defense has struggled, allowing 77.5 points per game, and their offense has been inconsistent.
- North Carolina and Navy have not played recently, with no direct head-to-head data available for the last several seasons. North Carolina holds a significant historical advantage in matchups against Navy.
- No injuries have been reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- North Carolina is playing at home, where they have a strong record and a significant home-court advantage. Navy is on the road, where they have covered the spread more often than at home, but their overall performance has been poor against quality opponents.
- North Carolina is looking to extend their winning streak and maintain momentum early in the season. Navy is seeking a signature win to boost their resume and confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -10000, away: 2400 | North Carolina Tar Heels | Not available |
| Spread | home: -24.5, away: 24.5 | North Carolina Tar Heels -24.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | over: 160.5, under: 160.5 | Over 160.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Carolina Tar Heels -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 160.5 40% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 160.5 at 40% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 46.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
North Carolina is expected to win decisively, covering the large spread and pushing the total points over the line. The Tar Heels' offensive firepower and defensive strength should overwhelm Navy, who have struggled against high-level competition.
Predicted Score: North Carolina 88 – Navy 62