Match Analysis: North Alabama Lions vs Northwestern St Demons – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-12
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Flowers Hall, Florence, AL
Game Overview
The North Alabama Lions (1-1) host the Northwestern State Demons (0-2) in an NCAA college basketball matchup. North Alabama aims to bounce back after splitting their first two games, while Northwestern State seeks their first win following two losses, including a heavy defeat against North Texas. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+.
Key Factors to Consider
- North Alabama shows moderate early-season form with a recent home win (90-84 against Lane College) and a loss to Mississippi State. Northwestern State is struggling offensively and defensively, coming off a 80-53 road loss to North Texas, with poor shooting percentages (35% FG and 31% 3PT in last game) and a less effective rebounding effort.
- The most recent head-to-head meeting saw Northwestern State win 71-58. Overall, North Alabama holds a 1-1 record this season with points for/against at 152/170, while Northwestern State is 0-2 with a points deficit of 121/178. Historically, North Alabama plays better at home where this game takes place.
- No specific player injury information is currently available for either team, which suggests full rosters or no significant absences impacting expected lineups.
- Playing at home gives North Alabama a notable advantage, especially with strong public backing as indicated by 100% of public bets favoring them. The venue and home crowd support could be impactful given Northwestern State's recent road struggles.
- North Alabama has motivation to build on their split start and defend their home court, while Northwestern State is under pressure to secure their first season win and break a two-game losing streak.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Alabama Lions: -245, Northwestern St Demons: 194 | North Alabama Lions win | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | North Alabama Lions: -5.5 -110, Northwestern St Demons: +5.5 -110 | North Alabama Lions -5.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 145.5 -118, Under: 145.5 -106 | Under 145.5 points | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Alabama Lions 8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 145.5 26% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 145.5 at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
North Alabama Lions are favored to win and cover the spread due to superior recent form, home advantage, and struggles from Northwestern State, with North Alabama expected to maintain control throughout the game.
Predicted Score: North Alabama Lions 75 – Northwestern St Demons 66