Match Analysis: New York Knicks vs Minnesota Timberwolves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-05
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Madison Square Garden
Game Overview
The New York Knicks host the Minnesota Timberwolves in a matchup of 4-3 teams, both seeking to establish themselves against a tougher opponent. The Knicks are on a four-game home win streak and are favored, while the Wolves are missing star Anthony Edwards due to injury.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Knicks have a perfect home ATS record (4-0) and are healthier, with Jalen Brunson leading their offense. The Timberwolves have wins against weak opponents and are still adjusting without Edwards, but their defense remains strong. Both teams are average on offense, but the Knicks are top-5 in rebounding, a potential edge in grinding games[1][2][3].
- Recent meetings are split: Knicks won 133-107 in 2024, Timberwolves won 116-99 in Jan 2025. Home-court and health are key; last season's data is less relevant due to roster and health changes[1].
- Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards (G, out) – huge loss for offense. Knicks: Mitchell Robinson (C, day-to-day) – possible minor impact, but starters otherwise healthy[2].
- Knicks have strong home momentum; Wolves have played mostly weak teams on the road. No significant rest or travel issues for either[1][2].
- Both teams are eager to prove themselves against quality opposition. Knicks want to extend their home streak and solidify upper-tier status, while Wolves need a marquee win to validate their record[2].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Knicks -185, Wolves 154 | Knicks | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Knicks -4.5 (-105), Wolves +4.5 (-115) | Knicks -4.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 228.5 (-110), Under 228.5 (-110) | Over 228.5 | ★★★☆☆ 61% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Knicks 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 228.5 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 228.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Knicks are the clear favorite given the Wolves' injury and performance gaps. Edwards’ absence takes away Minnesota’s primary creator, and the Knicks' rebounding and home court are strong enough to cover a modest line. Expect a competitive game in the 220s, but lean toward the over due to both teams’ offensive talent and pace[1][2][3].
Predicted Score: Knicks 118, Timberwolves 113
