Match Analysis: New Orleans Pelicans vs Portland Trail Blazers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-12
- Time: 1:10 AM UTC
- Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
Game Overview
The Portland Trail Blazers (5-5) visit the New Orleans Pelicans (2-8) in a Western Conference matchup at the Smoothie King Center. The Trail Blazers are strong favorites, with the spread set at -8.5 and the over/under at 231.5. The Pelicans have struggled this season, especially at home, while the Blazers have shown better form and consistency. Both teams are coming off losses, but Portland has a clear edge in recent head-to-head matchups and overall performance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Portland Trail Blazers are 5-5 (2-3 away), averaging 119.3 points allowed per game and shooting 48.7% as a team. The Pelicans are 2-8 (1-2 home), averaging 108.0 points scored and shooting 43.3% from the field. The Blazers have been more consistent, while the Pelicans have struggled offensively and defensively.
- Portland leads the recent series, winning 3 of the last 4 meetings and 3 in a row. The Blazers have a 4-0 record against the spread in their last 4 matchups with the Pelicans. Historically, the Pelicans have won 7 of the last 10 head-to-head games, but Portland has dominated recently.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both teams are expected to field their full rosters.
- The game is being played at the Smoothie King Center, giving the Pelicans a home-court advantage, but their home record is poor (1-2). The Blazers are favored by 8.5 points, indicating bookmakers expect a comfortable win. The over/under is set at 231.5, suggesting a high-scoring game is anticipated.
- The Blazers are looking to build momentum after a recent loss, while the Pelicans are desperate for a win to improve their poor start to the season. Both teams are motivated, but Portland has more to gain in terms of conference standings.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Orleans Pelicans: 260, Portland Trail Blazers: -320 | Portland Trail Blazers | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | New Orleans Pelicans: 8.5 -112, Portland Trail Blazers: -8.5 -108 | Portland Trail Blazers -8.5 | ★★★★☆ 80% |
| Over/under | Over: 231.5 -106, Under: 231.5 -114 | Over 231.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Portland Trail Blazers -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 231.5 26% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 231.5 at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Portland Trail Blazers are expected to win this game comfortably, covering the -8.5 spread. The over/under of 231.5 is likely to be hit, with both teams capable of scoring at a high rate. The Blazers' recent dominance in head-to-head matchups and superior team performance make them the clear favorites.
Predicted Score: Portland Trail Blazers 122, New Orleans Pelicans 112
