Match Analysis: New Orleans Pelicans vs Portland Trail Blazers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 1:10 AM UTC
- Location: Smoothie King Center
Game Overview
The Portland Trail Blazers, with a 5-5 record, visit the New Orleans Pelicans (2-8) who are struggling early in the season. Portland enters as a strong 8.5-point favorite with a total points line set at 231.5.
Key Factors to Consider
- Portland has demonstrated stronger offensive output (averaging around 120 points) and better shooting efficiency (44.6% FG) compared to New Orleans, who averages around 108 points and shoots approximately 43.3%. Portland also has a better ATS record when scoring over 121.3 points.
- Recent head-to-head results favor Portland decisively, with multiple wins by margins exceeding 10 points. New Orleans has struggled as the underdog historically in this matchup.
- New Orleans misses Jordan Poole (mild left quadriceps strain), impacting their offensive capabilities. Portland has Matisse Thybulle out for at least four weeks but retains a healthier overall squad.
- The game is at New Orleans' home venue, which could aid the Pelicans in keeping the game competitive. No significant weather or travel conditions appear to disrupt either team's preparation.
- Portlandβs motivation is high to assert consistency after an even start, especially on the road, whereas New Orleans is under pressure trying to escape a poor season start and may show fight at home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: +260, away: -320 | Portland Trail Blazers | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | home: -112, away: -108 | Portland Trail Blazers -8.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | over: -106, under: -114 | Over 231.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Portland Trail Blazers -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 231.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 231.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Portland Trail Blazers to win straight up, cover the -8.5 spread, and the game to go over 231.5 points.
Predicted Score: Portland Trail Blazers 122 – New Orleans Pelicans 112