Match Analysis: New Mexico St Aggies vs New Mexico Lobos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Pan American Center, Las Cruces, NM
Game Overview
The New Mexico Lobos travel to Las Cruces to face their archrival New Mexico State Aggies in a non-conference matchup. The Lobos enter with a perfect 3-0 record and bring a strong defensive profile under new head coach Eric Olen, who developed UC San Diego into an elite defensive team. The Aggies are 2-0 but have only faced Division II competition (Adams State and New Mexico Highlands) at home, winning by margins of 11 and 16 points respectively. This represents a significant step up in competition for New Mexico State. The Lobos are undefeated away from home (0-0 record) and have demonstrated offensive balance with six players scoring in double digits in recent games.
Key Factors to Consider
- New Mexico Lobos: 3-0 overall, averaging 77.3 points per game with 6.3 three-pointers made. Jake Hall leads the team with 12.3 points per game. The Lobos average 11 steals per game and have won their last three games convincingly. New Mexico State Aggies: 2-0 overall with a perfect 2-0 home record, but both victories came against inferior competition. Jemel Jones led the Aggies with 24 points in their last game (74-58 win over New Mexico Highlands). The Aggies rank No. 139 on KenPom's efficiency chart, which would likely be lower if D2 games were included.
- New Mexico State defeated New Mexico 89-83 last season. However, this season presents a different dynamic with New Mexico's new coaching staff and improved defensive capabilities. New Mexico has won each of its last eight Saturday games, a significant trend favoring the Lobos.
- No injury information available from provided sources.
- New Mexico has won the first half in each of its last 10 games, demonstrating strong early-game execution. New Mexico State has won each of its last eight games following a home win and won the first half in each of its last six home games. However, New Mexico State has lost four of its last five games against Mountain West Conference opponents, suggesting vulnerability against higher-quality competition.
- New Mexico Lobos are motivated to prove their legitimacy under a new coaching regime and establish themselves early in the season. New Mexico State Aggies face their first true test of the season and will be playing at home where they've been successful, but they're stepping into significantly more challenging competition.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos -194 / New Mexico St Aggies +160 | New Mexico Lobos ML | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos -3.5 (-110) / New Mexico St Aggies +3.5 (-110) | New Mexico Lobos -3.5 Cover | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 139.5 (-110) / Under 139.5 (-110) | Under 139.5 | β β β ββ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 139.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 139.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New Mexico Lobos will emerge victorious by a narrow margin. The Lobos' superior defensive profile, coaching quality, and proven performance against legitimate opponents outweigh New Mexico State's home-court advantage. New Mexico's elite defense and consistent first-half execution should control the tempo and limit the Aggies' scoring opportunities. The Lobos' road success and Saturday-game winning streak are additional confidence factors.
Predicted Score: New Mexico Lobos 74, New Mexico State Aggies 69