Match Analysis: New Mexico St Aggies vs New Mexico Lobos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Pan American Center, Las Cruces, NM
Game Overview
The New Mexico Lobos visit the New Mexico State Aggies for a high-stakes intrastate rivalry matchup. New Mexico comes in with a 3-0 record and strong defensive coaching, while New Mexico State is 2-0 but has faced weaker non-D1 opponents thus far. Both teams have solid home and recent form, making this a tightly contested game.
Key Factors to Consider
- New Mexico Lobos boast a 3-0 start and strong defensive schemes under new head coach Eric Olen. New Mexico State Aggies are 2-0 but their wins were against lower-tier teams, raising questions about their strength against D1 competition.
- Historically balanced with a 50-50 split in past matches. The last few games have been close with slight edge to NiM State at home, but New Mexico has won several recent matchups and first halves consistently.
- No significant injury reports available for either team indicating full squads.
- Game at Pan American Center favors Aggies somewhat, but Lobos have shown strong performances on the road. Travel is short due to intrastate matchup limiting fatigue factors.
- High rivalry motivation on both sides. Lobos seek to assert MWC dominance; Aggies look to prove strength in CUSA early season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos -194, New Mexico State Aggies +160 | New Mexico Lobos | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos -3.5 -110, New Mexico State Aggies +3.5 -110 | New Mexico Lobos -3.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 139.5 -110, Under 139.5 -110 | Under 139.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 139.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 139.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New Mexico Lobos to cover the -3.5 spread
Predicted Score: New Mexico Lobos 72 – New Mexico State Aggies 67