Match Analysis: New Mexico Lobos vs Alabama St Hornets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-27
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM
Game Overview
This NCAA Men's Basketball matchup features the New Mexico Lobos hosting the Alabama State Hornets. The Lobos are a strong Mountain West team with a 4-2 record, while Alabama State, from the SWAC, is 3-4. The game is expected to be a significant test for Alabama State, who have struggled against higher-level competition this season. New Mexico has shown resilience and scoring ability, but Alabama State has demonstrated a tendency to put up points in spurts, especially in the first half.
Key Factors to Consider
- New Mexico Lobos have shown mixed results recently, including a close win over Mississippi State and a loss to Texas Tech. Their recent games have seen them score between 57 and 82 points, with a tendency to play at a moderate pace. Alabama State Hornets have been inconsistent, with blowout losses to teams like Vanderbilt and Colorado, but also a high-scoring win over IUPUI. Notably, Alabama State has scored over 70 points in the first half in 61% of their last 13 games, indicating a fast-starting offense.
- There is no recent head-to-head history between these teams. The only recorded meeting was on December 29, 1999, when New Mexico won. The lack of direct competition makes recent form and team trends more critical for prediction.
- No significant injuries have been reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- The game is being played at The Pit, a venue known for its home-court advantage for New Mexico. The altitude and crowd support could impact Alabama State's performance, especially in the later stages of the game.
- New Mexico will be motivated to maintain their strong home record and build momentum for conference play. Alabama State will be looking to prove themselves against a higher-level opponent and potentially boost their national profile.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alabama St Hornets: 1400, New Mexico Lobos: -4000 | New Mexico Lobos | Not available |
| Spread | Alabama St Hornets: 18.5 -110, New Mexico Lobos: -18.5 -110 | New Mexico Lobos -18.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | Over: 145.5 -110, Under: 145.5 -110 | Over 145.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 145.5 24% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 145.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New Mexico Lobos are expected to win this game comfortably, given their superior record, home advantage, and the recent struggles of Alabama State against stronger competition. However, Alabama State's ability to score quickly in the first half could keep the game competitive early on.
Predicted Score: New Mexico Lobos 82 – 63 Alabama St Hornets
