Match Analysis: Nevada Wolf Pack vs UC Davis Aggies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-19
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: Lawlor Events Center, Reno, Nevada
Game Overview
This NCAA basketball game features the Nevada Wolf Pack hosting the UC Davis Aggies. Both teams enter with similar overall records (3-1). Nevada is favored strongly at home with heavy odds on the moneyline and a significant spread advantage. The matchup is expected to be competitive but with Nevada as clear favorites.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nevada Wolf Pack have a 3-1 record with solid recent performances, including a close home win and a dominant road win. However, they are 1-3 against the spread and have struggled on the road against the spread. UC Davis Aggies are also 3-1, with competitive losses and wins, showing resilience. Nevada tends to play high-scoring games with recent trends showing mostly over totals.
- There is no recent publicly available head-to-head record from the 2025 season, but overall Nevadaβs home advantage combined with the quality of roster suggests an edge. Past trends hint Nevada has stronger margins at home against similar caliber teams.
- No significant injury information is available for either team suggesting both squads should be near full strength.
- The game being at Nevadaβs home court (Lawlor Events Center) is a major factor with Nevada having full public backing (100% bets on Nevada). This home-court advantage likely influences odds heavily. There are no unusual external disruptions.
- Both teams have strong motivation to start the season positively. Nevada, favored heavily, will aim to maintain dominance at home, while UC Davis looks to prove themselves as competitive underdogs.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack: -900, UC Davis Aggies: +600 | Nevada Wolf Pack win | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack: -11.5 -115, UC Davis Aggies: +11.5 -105 | Nevada Wolf Pack to cover -11.5 points | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over: 142.5 -110, Under: 142.5 -110 | Over 142.5 points | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 142.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 142.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nevada Wolf Pack to win comfortably, covering the -11.5 spread with a strong likelihood due to home advantage, superior team statistics, and public betting support. Expect a moderately high-scoring game, with the total potentially hitting the over.
Predicted Score: Nevada Wolf Pack 76 – 62 UC Davis Aggies