Match Analysis: Navy Midshipmen vs Gardner-Webb Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-26
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Annapolis, MD
Game Overview
Navy Midshipmen (3-3) host Gardner-Webb Bulldogs (0-6) in a non-conference NCAA matchup. Navy is coming off a mixed start, while Gardner-Webb is winless and has struggled defensively, allowing nearly 95 points per game. The Bulldogs have lost all six games by double digits, including road defeats against major conference teams. Navy is favored heavily, with a double-digit spread and a moneyline reflecting a strong probability of victory.
Key Factors to Consider
- Navy averages 76.5 points per game and allows 73.2, showing a balanced offense and defense. Gardner-Webb averages only 68.8 points and allows 94.3, indicating significant defensive issues. Navy's assist-to-turnover ratio (1.22) is superior to Gardner-Webb's (0.83), suggesting better ball control and offensive efficiency. Navy's rebounding margin is positive, while Gardner-Webb's is -25.5, highlighting a major weakness on the boards.
- This is the first-ever meeting between Navy and Gardner-Webb. Navy has a strong record (14-6) against current Big South teams, while Gardner-Webb is 0-2 all-time against Patriot League opponents.
- No injuries have been reported for either team.
- Navy is playing at home, which adds a slight advantage. Gardner-Webb is on a six-game losing streak, all on the road, and has faced tough competition, including Minnesota, Clemson, DePaul, and Richmond. The Bulldogs are likely fatigued and demoralized.
- Navy seeks to build momentum after a shaky start, while Gardner-Webb is desperate for its first win but faces a tough opponent in a hostile environment.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Navy -1200, Gardner-Webb +720 | Navy Midshipmen | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | Navy -12.5 -120, Gardner-Webb +12.5 -102 | Navy Midshipmen -12.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over 158.5 -115, Under 158.5 -105 | Under 158.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Navy Midshipmen -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 158.5 37% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 158.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Navy is expected to win comfortably due to superior talent, home-court advantage, and Gardner-Webb's defensive struggles. The spread is justified, and the total is likely to go under as Gardner-Webb's offense is limited.
Predicted Score: Navy 78, Gardner-Webb 68