Match Analysis: Murray St Racers vs Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-19
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: CFSB Center, Murray, KY
Game Overview
Murray State Racers, currently 3-1, host Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans, who are 2-2, at the CFSB Center. Murray State has been in strong form offensively with an average of 99 points in their last three games. Arkansas-Little Rock is coming off a morale-boosting win at Ball State but has a less consistent record so far. This game features a motivated Murray State team aiming to avenge their Dec 2023 loss to the Trojans.
Key Factors to Consider
- Murray State has shown high scoring ability recently, winning convincingly against Nicholls State 99-79 and only losing once to SMU. Arkansas-Little Rock's recent form includes a narrow win over Ball State (68-62) and losses with varying margins. Offensive consistency favors Murray State substantially, with defense also highlighting an edge in recent games.
- The series is led by Arkansas-Little Rock 1-0, with their last meeting in December 2023 resulting in an 80-66 win over Murray State. However, Murray State showed strong improvement since that game.
- No specific injury reports are available for either team ahead of this game, suggesting both teams will have their main players available.
- The game is played at Murray State's home court, the CFSB Center, giving them a home-court advantage. Travel fatigue may slightly affect Arkansas-Little Rock after their five-hour trip from Muncie, Indiana to Murray, Kentucky.
- Murray State is highly motivated to continue their winning streak and avenge a prior loss to Arkansas-Little Rock. Arkansas-Little Rock, coming off a recent win, aims to build momentum with a road victory against a quality opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans: 800, Murray St Racers: -1350 | Murray St Racers win | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans: -14.5 -115, Murray St Racers: +14.5 -105 | Murray St Racers to cover -14.5 points | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over: 160.5 -110, Under: 160.5 -110 | Over 160.5 points | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Murray St Racers -11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 160.5 18% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 160.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Murray State Racers are expected to win comfortably, leveraging home advantage and recent offensive form to cover the spread and likely surpass the total points line.
Predicted Score: Murray St Racers 88 – Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans 70